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Events
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See All Topics →Latest Articles
Explore our Research →The big answers: EMARKETER Daily quiz
Article |
Aug 1, 2025
Revolut could soon become a full-service US bank
Article |
Aug 1, 2025
Nano-influencers earn impressive impression, engagement rates
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Aug 1, 2025
JPMorgan-Coinbase partnership could change customers’ relationship with crypto
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Aug 1, 2025
Trump intensifies threats against pharma if drugmakers don’t lower US prices
Article |
Aug 1, 2025
AI streamlines health report filings in Merck, McKinsey collab
Article |
Aug 1, 2025
United tries time-sensitive travel promotions to boost cardholder bookings
Article |
Aug 1, 2025
Klarna mulls possible September IPO
Article |
Aug 1, 2025
Competitive conquesting gains ground among RMNs
Article |
Jul 31, 2025
Parents prioritize value, convenience during back-to-school shopping
Article |
Jul 31, 2025
About
Our Methodology
Rigorous proprietary data vetting strips biases and produces superior insights.
Learn More →Total Retail Sales, by Tariff Scenario
Mcommerce
Physical Retail
Source: EMARKETER Forecast, July 2025 - July 2025
Note: excludes travel and event tickets, payments such as bill pay, taxes, or money transfers, restaurant sales, food services and drinking place sales, gambling and other vice goods sales; excludes Hong Kong
Additional Note: The “moderate tariffs” scenario assumes China’s economic growth slows, but the downturn is limited due to partial tariff relief brought by trade negotiations with other countries and by domestic stimulus measures. The “heavy tariffs” scenario assumes a sharp increase in tariffs as US-China trade negotiations break down and tensions with other trading partners escalate, leading to weaker economic growth despite domestic stimulus measures. EMARKETER benchmarks its China total retail sales figures against data from the National Bureau of Statistics China, for which the last full year measured was 2024.
Methodology: Estimates are based on the analysis of data from other research firms and government agencies, historical trends, reported and estimated revenues of major online retailers, consumer online buying trends, and macro-level economic conditions.