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EMARKETER

Worldwide Retail Ecommerce Forecast 2025

Growth Will Muddle Along Despite Significant Challenges in Several Major Markets

Report by Ethan Cramer-Flood  |  Apr 8, 2025
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Table of Contents
Executive Summary
Retail and ecommerce sales will underperform our previous forecasts
The high-growth era for ecommerce is over in most markets, but highlights can still be found
Ecommerce continues to grow its share of total retail, though progress is slow
The digital buyer total worldwide will reach a major milestone this year
Media Gallery
About This Report
The retail outlook for 2025 is worse than previously anticipated. However, many smaller emerging markets are still in line for strong years, and ecommerce continues to claw share from traditional retail.
Topics
Retail Sales
Ecommerce Sales
Worldwide
Table of Contents
Executive Summary
Retail and ecommerce sales will underperform our previous forecasts
The high-growth era for ecommerce is over in most markets, but highlights can still be found
Ecommerce continues to grow its share of total retail, though progress is slow
The digital buyer total worldwide will reach a major milestone this year
Media Gallery

Consumers are skittish in several major markets around the world thanks to US-led trade hostilities and the possibility of a recession across North America. China, meanwhile, remains in an extended slump. But the world is large, and much of it will be only tangentially impacted by these challenges. Retail and ecommerce sales worldwide will muddle through.

Key Question: What is the outlook for worldwide, regional, and country-by-country retail and ecommerce sales in 2025 and beyond?

Worldwide Ecommerce Sales Growth Will Dip Slightly in 2025, Mostly Due to Softness in China (trillions in retail ecommerce sales worldwide, % change, and % of total retail sales, 2022-2028)
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Key Stat: Ecommerce growth worldwide will decelerate in 2025, due mostly to weakness in China’s economy and trade-war-induced stresses in the major markets of North America. But 2026 will be better.

Here’s what’s in the full report

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9charts

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Table of Contents

  1. Executive Summary
  2. Retail and ecommerce sales will underperform our previous forecasts
  1. The high-growth era for ecommerce is over in most markets, but highlights can still be found
  2. Ecommerce continues to grow its share of total retail, though progress is slow
  1. The digital buyer total worldwide will reach a major milestone this year
  2. Media Gallery

Charts in This Report

Worldwide Ecommerce Sales Growth Will Dip Slightly in 2025, Mostly Due to Softness in China (trillions in retail ecommerce sales worldwide, % change, and % of total retail sales, 2022-2028)Worldwide Retail Sales Growth Will Remain Steady Despite Pockets of Geopolitical Instability (trillions in retail sales worldwide and % change, 2022-2028)
Over 80% of 2025's Worldwide Ecommerce Sales Will Happen in China, the US, and Western Europe (% of worldwide retail ecommerce sales for select countries/regions, 2025)Ecommerce Sales Are No Longer Growing All That Much Faster Than Brick-and-Mortar Sales (% change in retail ecommerce vs. physical retail sales worldwide, 2017-2028)
Only a Few of the World's Largest Markets Will Achieve Standout Sales Growth in 2025 (% change in retail ecommerce and total retail sales in the largest markets worldwide, 2025)Smaller Countries Will Make Up Most of the Top 10 List for Fastest Ecommerce Growth in 2025 (top 10 countries worldwide, ranked by % change in retail ecommerce sales, 2025)
Ecommerce Will Account for Over 20% of Retail Worldwide, but China Heavily Inflates That Figure (ecommerce % of total retail sales worldwide vs. worldwide excluding China, 2019-2028)China Sells a Higher Share of Goods Online Than Anywhere Else in the World (ecommerce % of total retail sales, by market, 2025)
There Will Be More Than 3 Billion Digital Buyers Worldwide in 2025 (billions of digital buyers worldwide, % of internet users, and % of population, 2022-2028)

authors

Ethan Cramer-Flood

Contributors

Paul Briggs
Principal Analyst
Oscar Bruce Jr.
Director, Forecasting
Sky Canaves
Principal Analyst
Vladimir de Leon
Chart Editor
Diego Dell’Orco
Nikolai Dineros
Vivian Dong
Forecasting Analyst
Madan Kumar
Copy Editor
Penelope Lin
Director, Data Visualization
Andrew Spink
Forecasting Analyst
Julia Woolever
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