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EMARKETER

Worldwide Retail Ecommerce Forecast 2025

Growth Will Muddle Along Despite Significant Challenges in Several Major Markets

Report by Ethan Cramer-Flood  |  Apr 8, 2025
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Table of Contents
Executive Summary
Retail and ecommerce sales will underperform our previous forecasts
The high-growth era for ecommerce is over in most markets, but highlights can still be found
Ecommerce continues to grow its share of total retail, though progress is slow
The digital buyer total worldwide will reach a major milestone this year
Media Gallery
About This Report
The retail outlook for 2025 is worse than previously anticipated. However, many smaller emerging markets are still in line for strong years, and ecommerce continues to claw share from traditional retail.
Topics
Retail Sales
Ecommerce Sales
Worldwide
Table of Contents
Executive Summary
Retail and ecommerce sales will underperform our previous forecasts
The high-growth era for ecommerce is over in most markets, but highlights can still be found
Ecommerce continues to grow its share of total retail, though progress is slow
The digital buyer total worldwide will reach a major milestone this year
Media Gallery

Consumers are skittish in several major markets around the world thanks to US-led trade hostilities and the possibility of a recession across North America. China, meanwhile, remains in an extended slump. But the world is large, and much of it will be only tangentially impacted by these challenges. Retail and ecommerce sales worldwide will muddle through.

Key Question: What is the outlook for worldwide, regional, and country-by-country retail and ecommerce sales in 2025 and beyond?

Worldwide Ecommerce Sales Growth Will Dip Slightly in 2025, Mostly Due to Softness in China (trillions in retail ecommerce sales worldwide, % change, and % of total retail sales, 2022-2028)
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Key Stat: Ecommerce growth worldwide will decelerate in 2025, due mostly to weakness in China’s economy and trade-war-induced stresses in the major markets of North America. But 2026 will be better.

authors

Ethan Cramer-Flood

Contributors

Paul Briggs
Principal Analyst
Oscar Bruce Jr.
Director, Forecasting
Sky Canaves
Principal Analyst
Vladimir de Leon
Chart Editor
Diego Dell’Orco
Nikolai Dineros
Vivian Dong
Forecasting Analyst
Madan Kumar
Copy Editor
Penelope Lin
Director, Data Visualization
Andrew Spink
Forecasting Analyst
Julia Woolever
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