The forecast: With grocery sales up more than 13% in 2020, we expect sales to level off this year as consumers shift spending back into out-of-home categories.

Dive deeper:

• We forecast that US grocery sales will tick up 1.1% this year to $1.269 trillion, partially due to inflation.
• Spending in restaurants and bars has recovered in recent months, which could be eating into grocery’s share.
• Meanwhile, online grocery sales will rise 12.3%, a sharp deceleration from last year's 63.9% growth.

Looking ahead: Despite the slowdown, grocery sales will continue to grow, reaching $1.451 trillion in 2025.