Key stat: Tariffs may reduce US social media ad spend by $10 billion in 2025, or 10% versus our existing forecast.

Beyond the chart:

• Heavy tariffs would reduce US social media ad spend YoY growth to 1.5% versus our existing forecast of 12.8%.
• Performance-driven platforms like search and connected TV may be more resilient if heavy tariffs take hold and stick around.

Use this chart: Marketers and ecommerce professionals can use this chart to plan for multiple growth scenarios with flexible budgets. Platforms may consider finding advertisers who do not rely heavily on cross-border spending.

Related EMARKETER reports:

• Impact of Tariffs on US Businesses (EMARKETER subscription required)
• Worldwide Retail Ecommerce Forecast 2025 (EMARKETER subscription required)

Note: Social network ad spending includes paid advertising only; includes advertising that appears on desktop and laptop computers as well as mobile phones, tablets, and other internet-connected devices, and includes all the various formats of advertising on those platforms; excludes payments to influencers or other creators to produce sponsored content; and includes creator content amplified as paid media. Social networks are sites where the primary activities involve creating a profile and interacting with a network of contacts by sharing updates, comments, photos, or other content.

Methodology: Estimates are based on the analysis of various elements related to the ad spending market, including macro-level economic conditions, historical trends of the advertising market, historical trends of each medium in relation to other media, reported revenues of major ad publishers, estimates from other research firms, data from benchmark sources, consumer media consumption trends, consumer device usage trends, and EMARKETER interviews with executives at ad agencies, brands, media publishers, and other industry leaders.