That inflection point has been years in the making

In 2024, traditional TV accounted for less than half of US total video subscription revenues for the first time. Its share of video subscription revenues will slip to about one-third by the end of our forecast in 2028.

During that period, digital pay TV’s share of video subscription revenues will grow from 13.2% in 2025 to 15.4% in 2028. Digital pay TV offerings—also known as virtual multichannel video programming distributors (vMVPDs)—include services like YouTube TV, Fubo, and Sling TV, which deliver linear TV programming digitally.

The rest of the streaming sector will make larger gains during that period, increasing its share of video subscription revenues by about 8 percentage points.

YouTube has quietly developed a strong subscription business. Although YouTube is usually used as a free service monetized through ads, it says its YouTube Music and Premium services now have more than 100 million subscribers worldwide. In February 2024, YouTube shared that YouTube TV had surpassed 8 million subscribers in the US.

According to our forecasts, the company will receive more than $13 billion in US subscription revenues from YouTube Premium and YouTube TV combined in 2025. YouTube has driven more people toward paid plans in part by aggressively fighting ad blockers.

Netflix and Disney+ won’t add many viewers this year, but they will continue to generate the highest subscription revenues among streaming services. Netflix will receive $17.12 billion in US subscription revenues in 2025, per our forecast. The Walt Disney Co. will receive just under $10 billion from Disney+, ESPN+, and Hulu’s subscription video-on-demand (SVOD) product combined. And Hulu + Live TV will bring an additional $4.46 billion in subscription revenues.

To improve profits, streaming services keep raising prices and restricting password-sharing. These tactics have become common.

Read the full report, Digital Video Forecast and Trends Q1 2025.