The news: Search advertising is entering a new era where Amazon and other retail media players are reshaping how discovery and intent are monetized. According to our Q3 US ad spend forecast, total US search ad spending will climb 9.9% in 2025 to $142 billion, but the gains will no longer belong primarily to Google.

Amazon’s share of search ad spending is projected to reach 25.7% by 2027, while Google’s will edge slightly lower. Retail media search alone will expand 17.7% in 2025 to $38 billion, buoyed by first-party data and attribution improvements. Meanwhile, Microsoft’s Copilot integration and new retail search partnerships are expected to modestly lift its share of the market.

Why it matters:

• The definition of search is changing. Once synonymous with keyword-based queries, search is increasingly embedded across shopping journeys—whether through retail sites, AI assistants, or voice-enabled devices.
• AI is accelerating the shift. Predictive search tools and generative interfaces are allowing advertisers to connect with shoppers earlier in the decision cycle. Google’s integration of AI Overviews and Amazon’s use of generative product listings mark the start of intent-driven advertising that anticipates what users want before they type.
• Performance budgets are following first-party data. Retail platforms’ ability to match ad exposure to verified purchases gives them a measurement edge that traditional search engines can’t easily replicate.
• Competition is broadening. Retailers, marketplaces, and even CTV players are vying to capture “commerce intent” moments once dominated by Google. The result: A search market that is diversifying rather than contracting.

What marketers can do:

• Invest in retail search experimentation. Brands should pilot campaigns across Amazon, Walmart, and emerging retailer networks that combine sponsored listings with high-quality attribution data.
• Balance AI tools with human oversight. Use generative ad copy and predictive keywords to scale discovery but keep manual guardrails in place to maintain brand tone and accuracy.
• Integrate measurement across engines. Compare performance between traditional search and retail-based campaigns using unified ROI metrics rather than isolated KPIs.
• Revisit your “search mix.” Google may remain indispensable, but allocating more spend to retail media will future-proof campaigns against cookie loss and capitalize on where shopping intent now begins.