The news: The final countdown for a US TikTok ban has officially begun after a judge refused to grant an emergency injunction to halt the law requiring the platform to sell to a US company by January 19.

• Barring a sale, TikTok has three paths to avert the ban: An appeal to the Supreme Court, an executive order from Donald Trump once he assumes the presidency, or a three-month extension from current President Joe Biden.
• However, there is no guarantee the Supreme Court will choose to hear its appeal, and Trump has sent mixed signals on his commitment to the ban.
• US lawmaker notified Google and Apple to prepare to remove the app from their digital storefronts to cooperate with the ban.

Yes, but: This may not be TikTok’s last gasp. The most likely outcome appears to be that the app will go dark for a period of time, becoming unavailable until it sells, is saved by executive order, or gets a favorable SCOTUS ruling. But there’s still the chance that it comes back after that time.

• But going dark is a grim prospect for the app, which is surrounded by short-form video competitors in Reels and YouTube Shorts. In its request for an injunction, TikTok said even a one-month shutdown would cause it to lose 29% of its global ad revenue target for 2025.

How advertising will change: TikTok has stayed the course throughout 2024 despite the ban, introducing new features and seeing significant success with TikTok Shop around Black Friday. But with (at least) a temporary blackout looking like a certainty, marketers are sure to turn their attention elsewhere.

• We forecast that TikTok will attract $12.34 billion in US ad spending this year, opening up a large potential pool of spending for its competitors. Google and Meta are best poised to seize on it due to their existing short-form video platforms, but it remains to be seen how quickly consumers will look for a TikTok alternative.
• A TikTok ban is likely to cause CPMs on short-form video to rise. We forecast that social media CPMs will rise nearly across the board in Q1 2025, and the loss of a major short-form video platform means demand for space on Shorts and Reels is likely to pick up, emboldening Meta and Google to charge more.
• Advertisers should prepare for greater competition over coveted short-form ad space, and should watch carefully to see how user behavior adjusts to a ban.

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