The news: Netflix advertising chief Amy Reinhard claimed the streaming service has 190 million monthly active viewers (MAV) worldwide—a new advertising metric the company shared after it stopped reporting subscription numbers earlier this year.
Netflix calculates MAVs, a distinct measurement from monthly active users (MAUs), by taking viewers who have watched at least one minute of content on an ad-supported subscription and then multiplying it by the number of people in a household. Reinhard called it a “clear and understandable” way for advertisers to find out how many viewers they’ve reached.
The company said in May that its ad tier had 94 million MAUs and 170 million viewers at the time—though the latter figure didn’t include the one-minute threshold.
All-in on ads: The shift away from reporting subscriber numbers and toward metrics that more clearly communicate ad reach reflects Netflix’s larger goal of juicing advertising revenues. We forecast the company will bring in $2.05 billion in US ad revenues this year, growing to $3.01 billion by 2027.
Netflix is closing in on streaming competitors’ ad dollars and has already eclipsed some. Hulu US ad revenues will slip slightly to $2.54 billion this year and hit $2.71 billion by 2027, when Peacock will similarly hit $2.74 billion, per our forecast.
The reason for Netflix’s rapid overtake of competitor revenues is driven in part by the service’s low churn. Its first-mover advantage, high-profile content like “Stranger Things,” a growing sports portfolio, and a flurry of ad-supported bundle offerings has helped it retain subscribers, making subscription figures a less reliable measure of its ad reach.
As Netflix widens the cost gap between ad-free and ad-supported viewing (the company most recently raised ad-free prices to $17.99 monthly in January and shuttered a cheaper, ad-free tier), more viewers will be driven to cheaper, ad-supported options. Those subscribers drive far more revenues for Netflix. According to our forecast, Netflix gets $10.50 in revenues per ad-free viewer; each ad-supported viewer brings in $43.29.
What this means for advertisers: Netflix wants to help advertisers more clearly understand an ad’s potential reach and ROI. Low churn, high-value content, and maturing ad offerings means Netflix will be an attractive option for brands for years to come—but the picture is about to get more complicated.
Several developments in the CTV sector will reshape what the crowded streaming space looks like in the next year. Disney plans to merge flagship service Disney+ and Hulu into a single service next year; combined, the service’s ad revenues will surpass Netflix. Additionally, Warner Bros. Discovery is exploring a sale that could shake up its own streaming offerings—and Netflix is reportedly interested in an offer.