The data point: While Adobe Analytics reported Amazon’s Prime Day sale drove a record $14.2 billion in ecommerce spending across the two-day event, another vendor identified a potential red flag in the retailer’s results: The number of millennials—those ages roughly 28 to 43—shopping on Amazon during Prime Day fell 4.4% year over year (YoY), per Facteus data cited by Bloomberg.

• Those consumers’ overall spend dipped 1.3% YoY, making it the only demographic with a YoY decline.
• Interestingly, millennials’ spending with other retailers didn’t decline the week of Prime Day.

What’s going on? There are several possible explanations why a small share of millennials may have decided to sit out Amazon’s largest sales event of the year.

• They feel strained. Lingering inflation and elevated interest rates continue to weigh on millennial consumers, particularly those carrying student debt or looking to buy a house. Three quarters (75%) of millennials are concerned about their family/personal finances, and 39% reported pulling back spending in Q2, per Jungle Scout.
• Other retailers captured their spend. July has turned into prime time for deal hunting and several merchants, including Best Buy, Target, and Walmart, shifted their sales ahead of Prime Day to capture a larger share of consumers’ finite discretionary spend.
• TikTok explains it all. While TikTok Shop’s “Deals For You Days” promotion fits within the prior explanation, it’s worth highlighting separately because Earnest credit card data suggests the platform grabbed share from competitors Shein and Temu during the first week of the event. The deals offered by brands such as L’Oréal Paris, Maybelline New York, and Zwilling USA have driven a historically high $52 spend per customer.
• Maybe it’s nothing. While it isn’t the sexiest explanation, it is possible the decline is statistical noise.

The big takeaway: While it is too early to draw any firm conclusions, it is worth keeping a close watch on millennials’ discretionary spending patterns given that they account for the largest group of US digital buyers.