The trend: Global personal luxury goods spending is expected to return to growth in 2026 after two years of challenging sales, according to the latest edition of Bain and Altagamma’s luxury report.
- The report expects the market to grow 3% to 5% next year, which would be a notable pickup from 2025’s flat performance.
- Our forecast is even more bullish: We expect global personal luxury sales to increase 5.5% in 2026, an acceleration from this year’s tepid 0.9% growth.
Behind the numbers: There are several factors driving the luxury industry’s recovery.
- Affluent shoppers are spending briskly. Both the US and China are grappling with K-shaped economies, where wealthier consumers are spending freely while everyone else pulls back. Worldwide, wealthy buyers are expected to account for nearly half (46% to 47%) of personal luxury spending, up from 30% in 2019—a sign that more aspirational shoppers are dropping out of the market as prices soar.
- Brands are finding their creative spark. Seemingly every luxury brand replaced its top designer in 2025, including Gucci, Chanel, and Christian Dior. Those moves have helped reignite interest—and may be boosting sales, though it’s still early days.
- Gen Z is splurging on accessible luxury. Brands like Coach and Ralph Lauren are performing well among younger generations looking for more affordable ways to stay on-trend.
Our take: After a tepid year, the luxury industry is set for a rebound in 2026. But recent years have shown that brands can no longer afford to coast on their reputations. Instead, they will have to win shoppers over with creative, compelling designs that justify their hefty price tags.
Go further: Read our report on Luxury Ecommerce 2025.