People and businesses are reeling from the economic tumult of the last few months. They’re looking for reliable data and trustworthy indicators of what to expect so they can take action.

At Insider Intelligence, our forecasting team is constantly analyzing historical data, combing through insights from thousands of data sources, and reacting to industry forces to predict where markets and segments are heading. Peter Newman, senior forecasting analyst, worked on our latest forecast for US digital ad spending in Q1. He tells us how the recent market turmoil, supply chain issues, and economic uncertainty could impact the numbers in our forecast.

Insider Intelligence (II): How did you factor inflation into the most recent forecast for digital ad spending in the US?

Peter Newman (PN): We published this forecast in March, when there were already several months of elevated inflation data. While there was debate, economists were generally talking about full-year inflation of around 4%. We factored that into our forecast, building in an expectation that some ad placement cost increases would place upward pressure on growth. This serves to counteract some of the headwinds that general economic conditions pose.