TikTok’s long-awaited deal to avert a US ban appeared to be nearing the finish line in late September after President Donald Trump signed an executive order approving a sale. But China has yet to green-light the sale, and the Trump administration threatened new 100% tariffs on Chinese imports weeks after, thrusting the deal into uncertainty once more.

If it goes through, the agreement would spin off TikTok’s US operations into a new, majority American-owned entity led by Oracle, Andreessen Horowitz, and Silver Lake. At stake is control over TikTok’s powerful algorithm, which regulators see as both a national security concern and the key to the app’s unrivaled cultural and commercial influence.

Below, we answer some of your top questions about how the ban could be averted, why TikTok matters so much, and what could come next.

The deal to avoid a ban

Who is buying TikTok’s US operations?

• TikTok’s US future is being reshaped by a pending spin-off of its stateside operations into a new, majority American-owned company designed to comply with the 2024 divest-or-ban law.
• Statements from Trump and reports suggest Oracle, Andreessen Horowitz, Silver Lake, and Emirati-owned firm MGX, among other potential buyers, are preparing to acquire the US business, with current US ByteDance investors rolling over their stakes.
• The reported structure would give US investors roughly 80% control and ByteDance under 20%. The entity would be led by an American-dominated board with one government-designated seat.
• Trump has confirmed that prominent conservative-aligned investors—including Fox’s Rupert and Lachlan Murdoch, Michael Dell, and Oracle’s Larry Ellison—are part of the proposed ownership group.

What is the current status of the deal?

• Trump signed an executive order in late September approving the deal, though Chinese President Xi Jinping has yet to do the same.
• Days later, the Trump administration extended the sale deadline once more to December 16.
• In early October, Trump threatened further tariffs on Chinese imports, which could derail any agreement.

Why was TikTok’s algorithm such a central issue in the negotiations, and what happens if it gets separated or retrained?

• TikTok’s recommendation engine is the platform’s defining feature, prioritizing discovery and virality over social connections and enabling ordinary users to go viral overnight.
• The algorithm also makes TikTok a leader in time spent with social media, particularly among younger users. US Teens will spend 1 hour and 18 minutes on TikTok per day this year, per our June forecast—more time than they spend on YouTube and Instagram combined.
• US regulators say control of the algorithm is tied directly to national security concerns because it controls how content is surfaced and how user data informs personalization.
• Reporting suggests ByteDance may license (or lease a copy of) its core recommendation algorithm to the new US entity to satisfy regulatory and security constraints.
• Fully rebuilding or retraining the algorithm on US-only data could cut off users from global content and weaken performance; small changes to how recommendations surface content risk disrupting campaigns, reducing engagement, and eroding TikTok’s cultural pull.

How could conservative-aligned ownership and political factors shape TikTok’s perception—and does it risk alienating younger users?

• Trump’s September executive order grants control to a consortium of investors that includes Larry Ellison, Rupert and Lachlan Murdoch, and Michael Dell—all with close ties to the Trump administration and conservative politics.
• The arrangement introduces reputational risk among TikTok’s younger, left-leaning audience. TikTok is the only major platform where left-leaning news influencers outnumber right-leaning ones (28% vs. 25%), creating tension if content tilts politically.
• Comparisons to X under Elon Musk illustrate the potential downside: A politicized shift could spur user backlash, advertiser retreat, and declining ad revenues.
• Even subtle perception changes could erode Gen Z trust and engagement, undermining both cultural influence and advertiser ROI.
• For marketers, this dynamic creates twin challenges—short-term continuity amid ownership changes and long-term credibility with a politically sensitive audience.

The deal’s importance

How many US jobs and businesses depend on TikTok?

• As of March 2025, TikTok supported an estimated 4.7 million US jobs, including 3.1 million creators and account managers plus 1.6 million adjacent roles in areas like marketing, talent management, and services, per Oxford Economics.
• Roughly 7.5 million US businesses operate on TikTok, collectively employing 28 million workers, and nearly three-quarters (74%) report that the platform has directly boosted sales, expansion, or hiring, per TikTok company data.
• An outright ban would put both creators and small businesses at risk, disrupting critical income streams and marketing channels that have grown central to ecommerce and retail strategies.
• For policymakers, the stakes extend beyond entertainment to real economic consequences across retail, advertising, and the creator economy.
• TikTok has argued that cutting off US access would disproportionately harm small businesses who often lack the resources to replicate TikTok’s reach on competing platforms.

How significant is the US to TikTok’s global revenues?

• The US accounts for only about 10% of TikTok’s global user base, but it generates over 40% of worldwide ad revenues, per our forecast.
• This imbalance underscores TikTok’s reliance on the US as its most lucrative market, driven by higher CPMs, stronger brand demand, and advertiser comfort with US-based audiences.
• The platform’s 116.6 million US users are particularly valuable because they skew younger. Gen Zers and millennials are highly engaged and willing to make purchases via TikTok Shop and ads.
• TikTok’s overseas revenues are growing quickly—up 38% in 2024 in Europe and Latin America—but the US remains the center of its monetization strategy.
• Ban uncertainty has already taken its toll on TikTok ad revenues. TikTok's US ad revenue growth will slow from 40.6% in 2024 to 14.2% this year, per our forecast.

What role is Oracle already playing in TikTok’s US operations and data storage under “Project Texas”?

• Oracle has been TikTok’s key US data partner through Project Texas, an initiative to store and secure US user data on Oracle’s cloud infrastructure since 2022. The partnership stemmed from a ban threat during the first Trump administration.
• Under the new ownership framework, Oracle would continue hosting US TikTok data, aiming to assure regulators that Chinese authorities cannot access it.
• The arrangement positions Oracle as both a technical gatekeeper and a financial stakeholder, giving it influence over TikTok’s compliance and future governance.
• For marketers, Oracle’s involvement offers some reassurance on data security, but it does not resolve bigger uncertainties about how the app’s algorithm and ad platform will evolve under new leadership.

TikTok Shop

What is TikTok Shop, and how has it evolved since launch?

• TikTok Shop launched in the US on September 12, 2023, and has quickly become a powerful recommendation engine in social commerce. In 2025, an estimated 49.9 million US TikTok users—about 45.5% of the platform’s base—will make a purchase on TikTok Shop, up from 45.7 million the year prior.
• Early expectations centered on livestream shopping—popular in China—but US consumers never fully embraced “appointment shopping” formats. Livestreaming peaked at 26.1% of Shop sales in mid-2024 before slipping back to 18.1% by July 2025, showing limited consumer appetite for the format.
• Instead, TikTok Shop grew through short, pre-recorded creator content, which feels authentic, scalable, and easier to consume than live events. Creator-driven short videos now account for two-thirds of Shop revenues (66.4% as of July 2025), cementing their role as TikTok’s decentralized salesforce.
• This decentralized, creator-driven model has turned TikTok Shop into a social discovery hub where 83% of shoppers discover new products and 70% learn about new brands, per research from GlobalData and TikTok Shop.