Executive Summary

Apple’s rollout of its iOS 14.5 update has created significant challenges for many Facebook advertisers in recent months. Marketers are adapting to changes in how they target audiences, measure and attribute performance, and optimize their campaigns on Facebook in response.

How much will US advertisers spend on Facebook ads?

We estimate that net US Facebook ad revenues will grow 32.1% year over year (YoY) to $50.30 billion in 2021. That’s a significant increase versus our March 2021 forecast, when we predicted growth of 26.6%. Next year, growth will decelerate to 15.5%, dampened slightly by iOS privacy changes.

How has Facebook been affected by iOS 14.5 changes?

Facebook has experienced signal loss since Apple’s AppTrackingTransparency (ATT) framework in iOS 14.5 took effect in late April. Facebook no longer receives information about off-platform actions by Facebook and Instagram app users who have updated to iOS 14.5 or higher on their devices and opted out of tracking.

How are Facebook advertisers affected by iOS 14.5 changes?

Direct-response (DR) advertisers—those driving any type of lower-funnel action, like a purchase—have seen performance declines on their Facebook ad campaigns due to the impact of signal loss on targeting, measurement, and attribution. Advertisers using Facebook for branding reach have been less affected or not at all.

How are advertisers adapting to changes in targeting, measurement, and attribution on Facebook?

Advertisers are pursuing strategies that depend on first-party data, including bringing their own customer data into Facebook and relying more on Facebook’s own user engagement data. Aligning creative messaging to specific audiences will also become more powerful as a lever for ad personalization.

WHAT’S IN THIS REPORT? Our latest Facebook and Instagram ad spending forecast estimates, analysis of the effect Apple’s ATT framework has had on Facebook, and advertiser strategies to mitigate the impact of signal loss from IDFAs and the Facebook pixel.

KEY STAT: This year, US advertisers will spend $50.30 billion on Facebook ads, up 32.1% YoY.