This year will be pivotal for ecommerce penetration, but only due to China’s massive influence. In 2025, ecommerce will surpass 20% of retail sales worldwide for the first time. However, that figure falls to 12.8% if we remove China’s outsize weight from the data.

China’s enthusiasm for ecommerce is incomparable. The country has produced roughly half of the world’s ecommerce sales each year since 2017, and it will do so again in 2025. China’s expected $3.209 trillion in digital sales will also account for 51.5% of its domestic retail sales, which no other country will come close to matching.

Only five of the 67 countries we track will conduct more than 20% of their retail sales digitally. The UK (30.7%), Indonesia (28.9%), South Korea (28.3%), and Norway (21.4%) are the standouts besides China. The US will rank in the top 10 at 16.9% but won’t reach the 20% mark until 2029.

Read the full report, Worldwide Retail Ecommerce Forecast 2025.