In our "Top 9 Trends to Watch 2024" report, we predicted regulatory scrutiny over TikTok would increase this year. While we still believe TikTok will escape a ban in 2024, the bill to force it to divest has brought us closer than ever to a US digital landscape without TikTok. That would come at a cost for marketers, users, and creators. It would also consolidate more power to Meta and YouTube and could lead to a reordering of the digital world.

TikTok is a small(ish) but mighty part of the digital ad landscape

TikTok’s US ad business will be less than one-fifth the size of Meta’s in 2024, but it surpassed YouTube in ad revenues last year, per our forecast. Its ad business is also bigger than those of Snapchat, X (formerly Twitter), and Pinterest combined, demonstrating its position as a must-buy for advertisers. The US is a highly lucrative market for TikTok, accounting for about half of its worldwide ad revenues in 2024.