Key stat: Inflation-adjusted back-to-school spend has fallen to $557 per child in 2026, wiping out the entire pandemic-era run-up and landing just $38 above 2019 levels, according to a May survey from Deloitte.

Beyond the chart:

• Parents are not cutting the whole basket, they are cutting the fun half. Discretionary items dropped to about 56% of back-to-school budgets from roughly 60% a year earlier, and inflation-worried families earning under $50,000 spend about $188 less per child than unworried peers in the same bracket, according to JLL.
• Thinner real budgets are also changing how parents pay. Some 45% of families expect to use buy now, pay later for back-to-school purchases, up from 39% last year, and 44% say essentials are getting harder to afford, according to Omnisend.

Use this chart: Drop this into planning meetings where flat nominal spend looks like stable demand. Four straight years of real decline reframe the number as shrinking purchasing power, and give you the benchmark to argue for value positioning, essentials-first assortments, and flexible payment options heading into Q4.

Related EMARKETER reports:

• Holiday Shopping 2026 (EMARKETER subscription required)
• Data Drop: Back-to-School Forecast 2026 (EMARKETER subscription required)

Methodology: Data is from the July 2026 Deloitte report "2026 Deloitte Back-to-School Survey." 1,207 parents of school-aged children, with respondents having at least one child attending school in grades K to 12 this fall were surveyed online during May 22 to May 29, 2026, by an independent research panel. The survey has a margin of error of plus or minus three percentage points for the entire sample.