The forecast: Amazon will make up 77.7% of US ecommerce channel ad revenues this year, contributing $27.94 billion of the $35.96 billion total.

Dive deeper:

• Amazon’s share of ecommerce channel ad revenues is shrinking, but growth will stay in the double digits, as it has since we began tracking it in 2017. The retail giant won’t see anything close to the whopping 56.5% growth it posted in 2020, but its ecommerce channel ad revenues will still increase by an impressive 28.1% this year.
• Because of Amazon’s dominance, growth for the company means growth for the entire ecommerce channel ad market. Total US ecommerce channel ad spending will rise by 29.0% this year.
• Ecommerce channel ad spend contributes an increasing portion of total digital ad spend in the US. This year, it will make up 14.5% of the digital ad market, and its share will reach 20.1% by the end of our forecast period in 2026.
• Among several top retailers, including Walmart, eBay, and Etsy, ad revenue growth was slightly weaker than expected in Q4 2021 due to supply chain issues and an outbreak of the omicron variant.
• That said, ecommerce isn’t going anywhere, and neither is ecommerce channel advertising. As Amazon’s rivals build out their ad capabilities, the market as a whole will continue to boom, most notably in consumer packaged goods, where in-store advertising is going digital.

Looking ahead: Two forces combined—economic volatility and cooling ecommerce growth following two red-hot years—have made for some rocky Q1 2022 earnings reports, but ecommerce channel ad spend will not be hit as hard as retail. In 2026, ecommerce channel ad spend will reach $73.02 billion in the US.