Affiliate marketing is having a main character moment.

Advertisers will spend $12.42 billion on affiliate programs this year, up 10.2% YoY, according to EMARKETER’s “Affiliate Marketing 2025” report. This spending will drive 13.0% of US ecommerce sales or roughly $1 in every $7 spent online. And yet the story is just beginning. The report calls this moment a “profound, AI-powered disruption,” as tools like ChatGPT reshape how consumers discover and buy.

Influencers are driving much of that growth. They now account for nearly 20% of affiliate budgets on one major network and are the fastest-rising slice of the channel. But with growth comes scrutiny. Advertisers point to inflated commissions, fraud, and murky attribution. Consumers have doubts. PartnerCentric’s new study, “The Anxiety of Influencers: Top Trends in Influencer Marketing 2025,” found that 76% of Americans follow influencers, yet only 17% name them as their most trusted source of product recommendations—ranking behind crowdsourcing at 63% and AI at 20%.

Everyone follows influencers, but fewer believe them. The next wave of performance marketing will be won in that credibility gap.

From reach to resonance

PartnerCentric’s research also found that 60% of consumers remember influencer recommendations over traditional ads, and half have made a purchase this year, spending an average of $372. The issue is not influence; it is trust.

Large audiences no longer guarantee results. Now, partnerships that feel relevant, transparent, and credible drive performance. The most effective programs are built on shared values and measurable outcomes that create recall and results.

The AI factor

EMARKETER notes that generative AI is “rewriting many of affiliate marketing’s most important rules.” ChatGPT and other tools are becoming shopping assistants, ingesting affiliate content and experimenting with affiliate-style revenue models. Between late 2024 and mid-2025, shopping-related queries on ChatGPT grew faster than any other topic.

AI matchmaking platforms are speeding up connections between brands and creators. However, PartnerCentric’s survey shows over half of consumers feel uneasy about AI-generated influencers. People want technology to make shopping easier, not impersonate trust. The opportunity lies in balance: using AI for smarter, faster, and fairer decisions behind the scenes, while keeping genuine human connection at the forefront of influence.

Holding influencers to affiliate standards

Affiliate marketing has always been grounded in accountability and results. Influencer marketing is catching up and deserves the same rigor. As EMARKETER notes, attribution and incrementality are becoming critical as AI reshapes discovery and consumer journeys. Brands need smarter technology to separate true incremental sales from surface-level engagement and to understand where real growth originates.

The principle should be simple: every dollar spent should demonstrate measurable value, not vanity metrics. That’s how advertisers can seize the influencer opportunity without losing transparency, trust, or ROI.

The bottom line

Affiliate marketing is entering its AI era, powered by technology, reshaped by content, and accelerated by creators. Success will depend on one thing: resonance.

Consumers want authenticity. Brands need accountability. Marketers who deliver both will define performance in the AI age.

Influence isn’t about who talks the loudest, but who is believed when they speak.