The results: The US toy industry returned to growth in the first half of 2025 after a flat 2024 and a sales decline in 2023, per a new report from Circana. Dollar sales rose 6% YoY, and unit sales increased 3%. The average selling price also climbed 3%, its first meaningful increase after three years of stagnation. Our take: The toy industry is at a crossroads. While Hasbro and Mattel have both raised their full-year outlooks, short-term risks—from tariffs to economic anxiety—are building. If those pressures persist, the category’s recovery could quickly stall. To stay resilient, brands should double down on the strongest demand drivers: licensed IP and the fast-growing “kidult” segment.

Hasbro and Mattel’s cost cuts pay off: Despite sluggish demand, both companies beat analysts’ bottom-line expectations.