The results: The US toy industry returned to growth in the first half of 2025 after a flat 2024 and a sales decline in 2023, per a new report from Circana.

• Dollar sales rose 6% YoY, and unit sales increased 3%.
• The average selling price also climbed 3%, its first meaningful increase after three years of stagnation.

What’s behind the growth? “Kidults” are fueling the toy industry’s resurgence.

• Sales to consumers 18 and older jumped 18% YoY—outpacing gains among 9- to 11-year-olds (up 9%) and teens 12 to 17 (up 6%).
• Licensed toys—which accounted for 37% of all toys sold in the US in the first half—gained nearly four share points, with sales up 18%. Every top growth property this year has been tied to content, licensing, or movie releases.
• 7 of the 11 supercategories posted dollar growth, led by games and puzzles (up 39%) and explorative toys (up 19%).

Headwinds ahead: The recovery could be short-lived.

• The toy industry is particularly vulnerable to tariffs, with roughly 80% of toys sold in the US manufactured in China, per the Toy Association. The new duties are expected to raise prices and may prompt brands to cut SKU counts to manage costs.
• The impact isn’t just upstream. Those cost pressures are beginning to influence consumer behavior. Rising prices, the resumption of student loan payments, and a weakening labor market are causing shoppers to rethink discretionary purchases, which could weigh on categories like toys.