Pinterest shifts to yield; its leadership change reinforces focus on performance, commerce, and higher ARPU.

The trend: Walmart has begun rolling out “Summer Frights” Halloween displays in about 1,000 stores across the US, featuring quirky early-season items like watermelon jack-o’-lanterns and ghost plushies in Hawaiian shirts. Our take: Walmart is smart to embrace offbeat retail moments like Summerween. While consumers are cutting back on discretionary spending, they continue to splurge on seasonal celebrations like Halloween and the holidays. Halloween alone has become a major retail event, with spending hitting $11.6 billion last year—a 31.8% increase from pre-pandemic 2019. Summerween pulls some of that spending forward and gives budget-conscious shoppers a playful reason to open their wallets—even if they’re feeling spooked by the economy.

The news: Michaels is getting a head start on the spooky season. The arts and crafts retailer began stocking its shelves with Halloween merchandise this past Friday, marking its earliest-ever rollout of themed items. Our take: Michaels is betting that even as consumers pull back on discretionary purchases, they’ll keep splurging on Instagram-worthy seasonal décor—especially if they can get it first. From black rose wreaths to candy-colored pumpkins and disco-themed skeletons, the early drop positions Michaels to win over shoppers eager to get a head start on Halloween.

Michaels looks to attract Party City and Joann’s shoppers: The crafts retailer expands its selection of party supplies and balloons, while also enhancing its in-store events.

And they likely won’t be coming down anytime soon due to the CFPB’s late-fee rule

By focusing on deals, value, and experiences, retailers can build a perception of value that resonates with discerning consumers. “The unremarkable retailers and brands are going to struggle because consumers are only spending when it's enjoyable, when they derive some pleasure from the purchase,” our analyst Zak Stambor said on the ”Behind the Numbers” podcast.

The personal consumption expenditures price index (PCE) rose again in March, increasing 2.7% YoY (including food and energy), according to the US Commerce Department. Because rising prices mean consumers are likely to remain cautious with how they’re spending their money, retailers like Michaels and Giant Food are cutting prices across their stores to help maintain or grow sales.

US retail marketplace ecommerce sales will grow 11.4% to reach $428.30 billion this year, per our forecast. Because Amazon (73.4%) and eBay (8.2%) will rake in the majority of those sales, smaller marketplaces like Shein, Michaels, and Wayfair are getting creative and taking the battle for sales in-store.

As brands seek to diversify the number of places they sell their goods, retailers should consider building out a marketplace model that can help brands reach more customers while also cutting down on retailer costs and creating new revenue streams. You don’t need to be Amazon to launch a third-party marketplace—Macy’s, Michaels, and H&M have all gotten marketplaces off the ground in the last year or so.

Michaels and Shutterstock are navigating growth through a blend of creative initiatives and hard metrics. Michaels is focused on enhancing its customer experience and its new online marketplace. Shutterstock is leaning into SEO, automated dashboards, social listening, and collaboration.

The pandemic ecommerce boom that drove online sales is over. But marketplaces will continue to expand their share of US retail ecommerce, contributing almost 40% of the $588 billion in US online sales growth that we forecast over the next five years.

Kohl’s, Michaels, and others launch third-party marketplaces to boost shopper appeal: At the same time, Wish, Zalando, and Amazon are focusing on improving customer satisfaction and reducing returns.