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US: Amazon Echo Share Will Drop Below Two-Thirds in 2019

Google Home and smaller players capture larger share of smart speaker market

December 20, 2018 (New York, NY) – Are fewer consumers in the US asking for an Amazon Echo for Christmas than in years past? The leading smart speaker continues to lose share to its smaller rivals. In eMarketer’s latest forecast, the Amazon Echo will drop below two-thirds of US smart speaker users for the first time.

Next year in the US, 74.2 million people will use a smart speaker*, up 15.0% over 2018. By the end of 2019, more than one-quarter (26.8%) of US adults will use a smart speaker.

In 2019, the Amazon Echo will capture 63.3% of smart speaker users, while the Google Home will account for 31.0%.  Smaller players, such as the Sonos One and Apple HomePod, will take 12.0%. Amazon’s share will shrink through 2020, while those of its rivals will grow. Please note that there is overlap among the brands, as some people use more than one device.

“Consumers in the market for a smart speaker have more options than ever, and Amazon will lose some of its majority share as a result,” said eMarketer forecasting analyst Jaimie Chung.  “Google has the Home Mini and Home Hub to compete with Amazon’s Echo Dot and Echo Show, and both the Apple HomePod and Facebook Portal will experience their first holiday season this year. Amazon has remained relevant by plugging Alexa into premium speakers like the Sonos, but even Sonos plans to bring Google Assistant to its devices next year, keeping the two companies neck and neck in the voice assistant race.”

Only a small number of people are using speakers for shopping. Voice commerce in 2018 will reach $2.10 billion, just 0.4% of US ecommerce sales. In fact, eMarketer has lowered its projections for smart speaker buyers** and shoppers*** since its Q2 forecast. While more than one-quarter of users (27.0%) will actually make a purchase using a smart speaker next year, it falls below the nearly 31% previously projected.

Despite the growing capabilities of smart speakers, people still tend to use them for basic functions: listening to music or podcasts, catching up on the news, getting weather and traffic updates and asking general questions.

“We still don’t see a lot of people shopping and buying with smart speakers yet, but this may change if more lower-cost models begin to incorporate screens,” said eMarketer principal analyst Victoria Petrock.  “We’re also likely to see people doing more things with their voice assistants as they find their way into cars and other home-based devices.”

 

Note:

* individuals of any age who use a smart speaker at least once per month

A smart speaker is a standalone device which includes a voice assistant, such as Google Home, Amazon Echo, Apple HomePod, or Alexa-enabled Sonos One. Excludes smartphones, desktops/laptops, tablets, wearables, gaming consoles, TV consoles, VR headsets, cars and smart-home devices.

** individuals ages 14+ who have used a smart speaker to make at least one purchase with voice command during the calendar year

*** individuals ages 14+ who have used a smart speaker to research products or add products to a shopping cart with voice command at least once during the calendar year, but have not necessarily made a purchase via smart speaker

 

Methodology
eMarketer’s forecasts and estimates are based on an analysis of quantitative and qualitative data from research firms, government agencies, media firms and public companies, plus interviews with top executives at publishers, ad buyers and agencies. Data is weighted based on methodology and soundness. Each eMarketer forecast fits within the larger matrix of all its forecasts, with the same assumptions and general framework used to project figures in a wide variety of areas. Regular re-evaluation of available data means the forecasts reflect the latest business developments, technology trends and economic changes.

 

About eMarketer
Founded in 1996, eMarketer is the first place to look for research about marketing in a digital world. eMarketer enables thousands of companies worldwide to understand marketing trends, consumer behavior and get the data needed to succeed in the competitive and fast-changing digital economy. eMarketer’s flagship product, eMarketer PRO, is home to all of eMarketer’s research, including forecasts, analyst reports, aggregated data from 3,000+ sources, interviews with industry leaders, articles, charts and comparative market data. eMarketer’s free daily newsletters span the US, EMEA and APAC and are read by more than 200,000 readers globally. In 2016 eMarketer, Inc. was acquired by European media giant Axel Springer S.E.

 

For more information, contact:
Douglas Clark
PR Director, North America
646-863-8807
dclark@emarketer.com

Posted on December 20, 2018.