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Holiday Sales to Cross $1 Trillion for First Time

eMarketer raises US holiday forecast as brick-and-mortar stays strong

November 6, 2018 (New York, NY) – Fueled by low unemployment, strong income growth and high consumer confidence, the holiday shopping season this year will be a strong one for retailers in the US. In its latest holiday retail forecast, eMarketer has raised its projections from its Q3 2018 forecast, specifically for brick-and-mortar retailers.

This holiday season (November 1-December 31), total retail sales in the US will increase 5.8% to $1.002 trillion. This is the first time holiday sales will cross the $1 trillion mark, and 2018 shows the strongest growth since 2011. Spending momentum will get an added boost from a favorable holiday calendar that features the maximum 32 days between Thanksgiving and Christmas.

Although some economic headwinds are finally beginning to form after mostly blue skies in 2018, we expect their effects to be muted until after the holidays. Retailers have built up inventories for products affected by tariffs on imports from China and are not expected to pass on notable price increases to consumers until 2019.

Brick-and-mortar sales for the 2018 holiday season will jump 4.4% to $878.38 billion (higher than the $863 billion projected in Q3). Brick-and-mortar still represents the majority (87.7%) of holiday sales, but its share has steadily declined.

“While ecommerce will continue to see strong double-digit gains, brick-and-mortar retail should be a particular bright spot this holiday season,” said Andrew Lipsman, principal analyst at eMarketer. “Not every brick-and-mortar retailer is thriving, and several have shut their doors this year, but others are really capitalizing on the strong consumer economy. Retailers are luring in shoppers with remodeled stores, streamlined checkout and options to buy online, pick up in-store.”

Ecommerce sales this holiday season will increase 16.6% to $123.73 billion. That means ecommerce will represent 12.3% of all holiday retail sales this year, a figure that has been growing steadily.

“For retailers, it will be a battle for ecommerce market share,” said eMarketer forecasting analyst Cindy Liu. “We should expect more promotions and perks like free and fast shipping, as retailers compete against Amazon.”

Holiday mcommerce (sales via tablets and smartphones) is also growing, representing 43.8% of ecommerce this year. That equates to 5.4% of total holiday sales.

 

Methodology
eMarketer’s forecasts and estimates are based on an analysis of quantitative and qualitative data from research firms, government agencies, media firms and public companies, plus interviews with top executives at publishers, ad buyers and agencies. Data is weighted based on methodology and soundness. Each eMarketer forecast fits within the larger matrix of all its forecasts, with the same assumptions and general framework used to project figures in a wide variety of areas. Regular re-evaluation of available data means the forecasts reflect the latest business developments, technology trends and economic changes.

 

About eMarketer
Founded in 1996, eMarketer is the first place to look for research about marketing in a digital world. eMarketer enables thousands of companies worldwide to understand marketing trends, consumer behavior and get the data needed to succeed in the competitive and fast-changing digital economy. eMarketer’s flagship product, eMarketer PRO, is home to all of eMarketer’s research, including forecasts, analyst reports, aggregated data from 3,000+ sources, interviews with industry leaders, articles, charts and comparative market data. eMarketer’s free daily newsletters span the US, EMEA and APAC and are read by more than 200,000 readers globally. In 2016 eMarketer, Inc. was acquired by European media giant Axel Springer S.E.

 

For more information, contact:
Douglas Clark
PR Director, North America
646-863-8807
dclark@emarketer.com

Posted on November 6, 2018.