Source: EMARKETER Forecast, May 2025 - February 2025
Note: includes products sold online by consumer brand manufacturers via standard distribution methods through a retailer or wholesaler (aka first-party sales), or third-party platform such as a marketplace (aka third-party sales); excludes products sold directly to consumers by consumer brand manufacturers via their owned and operated sites or apps (aka D2C sales)
Additional Note: Retailer ecommerce sales are product sales where a retailer is the direct seller and the merchant of record that assumes legal ownership of the inventory prior to changing hands with the consumer. Retail marketplace ecommerce sales are product sales where a third-party seller is the merchant of record that assumes legal ownership of the inventory prior to changing hands with the consumer, and exclude first-party sales on these platforms. D2C ecommerce sales are products sold online by consumer brand manufacturers that sell directly to consumers via their owned and operated sites or apps, bypassing standard distribution methods through a retailer, wholesaler, or third-party platform such as a marketplace, and include digitally native brands and established brands; traditional retailers’ private label brands are excluded. Retail excludes travel and event tickets, payments such as bill pay, taxes, or money transfers, food services and drinking place sales, and gambling and other vice goods sales. EMARKETER benchmarks its US total retail sales figures against US Department of Commerce data from 2018 onward. The last full year measured was 2024.
Methodology: Estimates are based on the analysis of data from other research firms and government agencies, historical trends, reported and estimated revenues of major online retailers, consumer online buying trends, and macro-level economic conditions.