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Nearly 50% of social network users in Thailand will be TikTok users this year, giving the country the highest TikTok penetration in the world, according to our forecast. The US will rank second, with 45.3% of its social users on TikTok. We expect penetration in the US will be as high as 49.1% by the end of 2026.

Beyond the chart: China is absent from this ranking as its social users are on TikTok’s sister app, Douyin. This year, Douyin’s penetration among social users in China will be 77.4%, far higher than TikTok’s penetration in any country, per our forecast.

Douyin is also a retail powerhouse in China, but TikTok users in the US have been slower to adopt social commerce. If their parent company, ByteDance, can get US users to buy into social commerce as those in China have, its retail footprint would be massive.

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Methodology: Estimates are based on the analysis of survey and traffic data from research firms and regulatory agencies; company releases; historical trends; and country-specific demographic and socioeconomic factors.