The trend: The cost of Thanksgiving dinner is set to soar this year amid a sharp spike in turkey prices caused by the resurgence of bird flu.
- Recent outbreaks have driven turkey meat production down 9.7% YoY, per the USDA, as the US turkey population fell to its lowest level in nearly four decades.
- The supply shortages are likely just as holiday demand peaks. And prices were already climbing, with wholesale frozen whole turkey hens up 26.6% YoY as of July.
The opportunity: Some retailers, however, are taking a glass-half-full approach, seizing on consumers’ heightened price sensitivity as a chance to underscore value and potentially capture market share.
- Aldi says its Thanksgiving basket is even cheaper than last year, when it claimed its lowest prices in five years. The $40 meal for 10 includes a 14-pound Jennie-O turkey, plus rolls, cranberry sauce, green bean casserole, stuffing, and pumpkin pie.
- Walmart touts its “best basket value,” serving 10 people for under $4 per person. The basket includes a Butterball turkey priced at 97 cents per pound—its lowest since 2019—along with Kinder’s Fried Onions, Campbell’s Cream of Mushroom Soup, Stove Top Turkey Stuffing, Great Value Dinner Rolls, and other holiday staples.
- Dollar General is offering bundled savings on ingredients for Thanksgiving classics like sweet potato casserole, green bean casserole, and pumpkin pie. For example, shoppers who buy Bruce’s Yams Cut Sweet Potatoes and Clover Valley Light Brown Sugar receive a free bag of Jet-Puffed Marshmallows. The retailer is also rolling out rotating price reductions and special offers across more than 15 branded food categories, such as “Buy Betty Crocker Frosting, get a Betty Crocker cake mix for $1.”
Our take: The rising cost of turkey—a Thanksgiving staple—and other groceries feeds consumer perceptions that the economy is faltering, with inflation rising, the labor market slowing, and the government shutdown driving down consumer sentiment. Those negative signals may prompt consumers to cut back on spending, a concerning sign heading into the holidays. Still, retailers that offer bundle deals and meal pricing savings can grab attention.