Recently, analysts have noted several indicators that point to streaming finally overtaking traditional linear television.

"YouTube has been at the top of Nielsen Gauge's index of the most watched sources of entertainment on streaming or linear for the past several months," said our analyst Paul Verna on a recent episode of "Behind the Numbers." "It's the first time this has happened consistently."

News and sports content—once the steadfast pillars of linear TV—are increasingly migrating to streaming platforms, potentially signaling a permanent shift in media consumption patterns.

Streaming officially overtakes linear TV

Nielsen data confirms what industry experts have long anticipated: streaming has surpassed linear television in viewership share.

• Streaming captured 44.8% of viewing time in May compared to linear's 44.2%—marking the first time streaming has taken the lead, according to Nielsen.

"I don't think it is a tipping point for linear TV. I think there are many other tipping points that we've seen coming for a long time," Verna said, noting that cable households have been below 50% for some time now.

Late-night TV struggles signal deeper issues

The recent cancellation of "The Late Show with Stephen Colbert" has sparked debate about whether it represents another canary in the coal mine for linear television.

"I think the niche that late night fills for a lot of viewers has been eaten into by so much free content, especially post-COVID," said our analyst Daniel Konstantinovic. "If you want to see interviews with celebrities, there are so many places now where you can do that on YouTube, on Instagram, with influencers perhaps moderating these debates who consumers might feel a closer kinship to."

And analysts say that the ad revenue for late night shows has fallen precipitously in recent years.

"The content is valuable, but not in the current late-night type of appointment viewing format," said Verna. "Gen Zers and millennials, they're really not into appointment viewing anyway."

ESPN-NFL deal reshapes sports streaming landscape

On the sports front, ESPN's acquisition of NFL Network and other National Football League media assets represents a strategic move to strengthen its position in the streaming wars.

"Years down the line, the current distribution of NFL streaming rights is going to be re-examined," said Konstantinovic. "If they have an equity stake in ESPN, that's a huge incentive to give ESPN a favorable package. Years down the line, I think Disney is poised to win big time in NFL rights bidding wars."

The timing is significant, with the Sunday Ticket rights coming up for renewal in 2026, followed by Thursday Night Football shortly after. This positions Disney to potentially reclaim territory from digital-first companies like YouTube and Amazon when these contracts expire.

"Disney is managing this transition from linear to digital a lot more effectively than its direct competitors," said Verna. "The way Disney is trying to carefully manage itself out of linear into digital should be a playbook for other companies."

While the ESPN deal still requires approval from NFL owners and government regulators, analysts believe it will move forward in the current regulatory environment, potentially establishing a template for future partnerships between leagues and networks.

Listen to the full episode.

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