The projection: Nonalcoholic beer is poised to overtake ale as the world’s second-largest beer category by volume this year behind lager, per IWSR.

• While ale is an incredibly broad category—encompassing everything from hazy IPAs to stouts and Belgian-style wheat beers—it's losing ground. Global ale volumes are expected to decline by 2% annually through 2029.
• In contrast, nonalcoholic beer continues to surge, rising 9% in volume last year, even as overall beer consumption fell 1%. IWSR projects the nonalcohol segment will expand 8% annually through 2029, driven by growing health consciousness, wider availability, and improved quality.

Why is this happening? The rise of nonalcoholic beer reflects a broader shift in consumer behavior toward moderation and perceived “better for you” products.

• This evolving mindset is particularly pronounced among younger drinkers: According to a July 2024 Gallup survey, only 50% of US adults ages 18 to 35 consume alcohol, compared with 70% of those ages 35 to 54.
• In response to this generational shift, nearly every major beer brand has jumped into the nonalcoholic space. Budweiser, Guinness, and Heineken have launched alcohol-free offerings. At the same time, celebrity-backed brands like Tom Holland’s Bero and Dax Shepard’s Ted Segers are tapping into the category’s momentum with lifestyle-driven branding.

Our take: With volume growth outpacing the broader beer market and no signs of slowing, nonalcoholic beer isn’t just a trend—it’s an important part of the beer industry’s future.