The forecasts: Mother’s Day spending is expected to reach a record $38 billion this year, up 11.4% YoY and well above the previous high of $35.7 billion set in 2023, per the National Retail Federation and Prosper Insights & Analytics.

That increase reflects a significant rise in the number of consumers planning to spend, as per-person spending is expected to grow a more modest 3.7% to $284.25—still above the prior record of $274.02 set in 2023.

These results align with a PwC survey showing wide generational differences, with Gen Z planning to spend an average of $922 on gifts, ahead of millennials ($803) and well above Gen X ($311) and baby boomers ($168).

Why it matters: While higher gas prices and energy costs are expected to pressure discretionary spending, the data shows many consumers are still willing to splurge on key occasions like Mother’s Day. Larger tax refunds—up 11.2% YoY, on average, per IRS data—are likely supporting some of that spending.

Growing interest in health and wellness is also shaping purchasing decisions. Parents with young children are increasingly treating Mother’s Day as a wellness-focused occasion, with 39% citing healthy eating/nutrition, 36% mental health/self-care, and 34% fitness products as influencing their choices, per PwC. These trends are particularly pronounced among urban consumers, 44% of whom cite healthy eating/nutrition and 40% mental health/self-care, compared with 25% and 27%, respectively, among suburban consumers.

Implications for retailers: The importance of major shopping occasions like Mother’s Day and back-to-school are magnified when consumers are pulling back elsewhere. That raises the stakes on execution, as retailers need to find ways to encourage their target customers to spend. What works will vary, as value will resonate with some shoppers, while others may respond to differentiated attributes like quality, wellness, or occasion-driven gifting. Ultimately, the retailers that win will be those that align their messaging and assortment with their understanding of how consumers choose to splurge.

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