Marcus Johnson (00:04):

Hey gang, it's Monday, January 5th. Yuri, Ross, and listeners, welcome in to Behind the Numbers, eMarketer video podcast. I'm Marcus and joining me for today's conversation, we have two gentlemen. One of them is our principal analyst heading up our media advertising and technology desks living in New Jersey. It's Yory Wurmser.

Yory Wurmser (00:22):

Hey, Marcus. How are you?

Marcus Johnson (00:24):

And we have our senior analyst covering everything, digital advertising and media living just outside of New York City. It's Ross Benes .

Ross Benes (00:33):

Hey, Marcus.

Marcus Johnson (00:35):

Hey, fella. Today's fact. So you know when you're on a plane and you're coming into land and you see that kind of flat, continuous layer of clouds below you. That I recently learned is because most weather is limited by a boundary in the atmosphere called the tropospheres. Have you guys heard of this?

Ross Benes (01:02):

I have not.

Marcus Johnson (01:03):

Yuri has. I knew as soon as I was writing this, I was like, should just ask Yuri for a small summary about what this is. But it exists because air doesn't mix easily across it. The tropospheres helps separate weather below from the climate or the ozone processes above. And the tropospheres acts as kind of a lid preventing most clouds and storms from rising higher. At the troposphere, the temperature pattern changes and the air becomes more stable, which is why a lot of commercial aircraft often fly near this level to stay out of most weather and turbulence. Also, just looks beautiful. If you guys have been in it and seen the sun setting, that's always a pretty amazing shot. Anyway, today's real topic. The great Behind the Numbers bake off, takeoff. Digital trends to watch in 2026. All right. In today's episode are bakers or takers because they're giving takes.

(02:12):

Very clever, will be cooking up some top trends to watch in 2026. Three rounds. Signature take is number one. The how will technically play out a challenge, number two. Number three, the show stopping argument. Let's meet the contestant's predictions. Yuri, what will you be cooking up for us today?

Yory Wurmser (02:30):

I'm predicting today, standards around advertising agents are going to take off in 2026, leading to a real revolution in advertising.

Marcus Johnson (02:40):

Okay. And Ross, what will you be baking for us?

Ross Benes (02:45):

That the surge in video podcast is going to benefit YouTube the most.

Marcus Johnson (02:51):

All right. We start with round one. And it is of course signature take. Our chefs will have one minute to explain the premise of their trends. We flick back to Yuri's for the first one. He said new standards will unlock agentic ad buying and selling. Yuri, tell us a bit about this one.

Yory Wurmser (03:14):

Agents are the buzz of the marketing world, I think mostly because of the e-commerce agents that are going to automate or trying to automate shopping. There's a parallel effort going on to automate ad buying and selling using agents. Now, programmatic already does that, but this would take the human mostly out of the loop. People would still be there for strategy, for approving adjustments, but a lot of the instantaneous optimization would be done by agents. New standards are required for that. And I think as they come online, we're going to see that type of selling and buying takeoff.

Marcus Johnson (03:53):

Ross, you are going to be baking for us a prediction that YouTube will benefit the most from the video podcast surge. Tell us more.

Ross Benes (04:04):

Well, there's a lot of effort being put into video podcasts such as the one that you may be watching right now on YouTube. But all the initiatives that Spotify and others are going to do, I don't think are going to add up to anywhere close to the amount of time spent YouTube is going to get in this area. YouTube is already a juggernaut, and if more investment is coming into this niche, it's going to serve their interest the most.

Marcus Johnson (04:31):

All right. Let's move straight to round two. Gents, which is the how it will technically play out challenge. Our chefs will explain in more detail how they expect the trend to manifest throughout the year. Yuri, we'll go back to yours. New standards will unlock agentic ad buying and selling. And in this prediction, and these two predictions are part of our digital trends in 2026 report. There's a bunch of other trends in there, but these are two of them. And in that, Yuri, you write that in digital ad buying and selling, the challenge is amplified by the variety of data sources for identity, being information and creative, or with their own APIs and schemas for structuring data and instructions. And so how do you see this trend playing out throughout 2026?

Yory Wurmser (05:19):

Well, basically the standards that I'm talking about provide a common language for agents to talk to each other. So part of that is structuring the data itself in these different sources. And part of it is creating kind of a unified API so they can talk directly to each other. So different standards are doing different parts of standard ... Or addressing different parts of the ecosystem. IAB TechLab has a standard around buying and selling within the programmatic landscape called ARTF, which is basically just agentic real-time buying framework. So that's one. And another big one is ADCP, which is one that's really trying to create direct links between ad sellers, publishers, and ad buyers, brands. And since I wrote this, actually an industry group has formed called Agentic Advertising that is going to overlook that ad CP. So all these standards, it's a bunch, it's an alphabet soup, but basically they're creating a common language for these agents to talk to each other.

(06:34):

I think the more transformational one is ad CPE, since it doesn't just work within the programmatic landscape, the open programmatic landscape could work all throughout the ecosystem. So that one I think is the one that is probably going to get the most resistance, but also the most long-term uptake because it really can make a huge difference.

Ross Benes (06:59):

Creating a standard is one thing, but getting mass adoption is another. So how do you feel that advertisers are going to go about this? Because even if a standard's created, doesn't mean that most of them are going to consistently use it.

Yory Wurmser (07:15):

Yeah, it's a good question. There's a fair amount of incentive around the supply side, especially the supply side dealing with premium publishers to get a standard for that direct buying and selling. The demand side, I think, has a little bit less incentive, but if they can adapt, there are also incentives for that part of the program, for the landscape. So I can see that the ad tech world being really incentivized to move forward. I think the bigger question is around the big walled gardens where most advertising is transacting now. They have their own standards built for themselves and their own platforms, and whether or not they want to buy into these standards is an open question. I think in the long run, it'll benefit them, but I think there are going to be holdouts.

Marcus Johnson (08:09):

All right, let's move over to your prediction. Ross, you're talking about video podcast and YouTube benefiting the most in 2026. Talk us through what's driving this.

Ross Benes (08:23):

Yeah. Well, so we actually have a forecast for podcast viewers, which sounds like a weird term, but that's what they are. And YouTube's going to have more than double the amount of podcast viewers than its closest rival in the US, which is Spotify. And what the challenge for Spotify or any of these other services that are trying to do it is that their customers are used to just the audio part. If you open up Spotify or Pandora, iHeartMedia, you're used to listening. If you're opening up YouTube, you're already habituated to watching video on YouTube. That's the most popular use case for YouTube. So it's more of a natural conduit. And YouTube didn't have to put in a lot of effort to already build a base for podcast watchers. They kind of just stumbled into it because podcast creators were already uploading this stuff there without YouTube having to put in an initiative.

(09:18):

Whereas the audio companies have to launch new products and market them and talk to creators about making video for them. It's a lot more effort that they have to put than with YouTube, it's like it just naturally comes into their system. And as more creators do video, YouTube's just going to be like a default place that they're going to plop it in even if it's not exclusively there.

Yory Wurmser (09:45):

Ross, I mean, I like this trend a lot. And I wonder how much of a role Google's advantage as an ad platform will help them as well.

Ross Benes (09:55):

That's a good question. I certainly think it helps them quite a bit because they're the largest ad seller really that there is. And a lot of these creators are already used to doing sponsored stuff with YouTube or the revenue they get from AdSense. I think it's a more plug and play than it is learning how to work in video advertisements for another platform.

Marcus Johnson (10:25):

You mentioned that YouTube is... There's twice as many people watching podcasts than Spotify, its closest competitor. And that gap widening a little bit as well, like continuing to maintain and even getting a little bit bigger into the future. So Spotify not really able to catch up at the moment. What's interesting is how people consume these types of media, because we've got some data from ACAST. You can see on the screen right now from November of last year, most podcast listeners watch video podcasts at least some of the time. And as you can see, mostly 40%, most people, mostly listen, sometimes watch. 27% listen and watch equally, and then 12% mostly watch. But sometimes listen, that leaves 17% of people who watch video podcasts only and 5% who listen only. But if you total up all of those different answers that said, I watched at least a bit of video, the sometimes video, the equally video or the mostly video, it's about 80% of people.

(11:32):

So it's not something that people are kind of doing sometimes. It's something that people are doing a lot. And it seems like podcast creators, podcast platforms, podcast advertisers all having to adjust to this trend.

Ross Benes (11:46):

Well, the video streaming services are also just looking for cheap content. So like Netflix and Samsung TV+ are putting some podcasts on their systems because that's significantly cheaper than producing a TV show.

Marcus Johnson (12:04):

Yeah. Any platforms that could really break out and challenge YouTube outside of Spotify?

Ross Benes (12:11):

I think TikTok would be really interesting, but the videos tend to be short there. You don't tend to have a hour-long TikTok episode or even a half-hour-long TikTok video like you do with the podcast. You'd have to chop it up and make a series of videos about one episode or just completely redo the creative for them.

Marcus Johnson (12:33):

Yeah. Microdramas video podcasts maybe crossover. Finally, Ross, before we move on, I liked what you were saying about what will and what won't make video podcasting successful next year and how you were talking about that you've got to make these engaging for audiences. You can't just film the thing and put it out there. You've got to give people the reason to watch.

Ross Benes (13:00):

Yeah, you need something that's visually compelling. So if you have a celebrity or someone who's well-known, I think that helps you out if you have a really high-end studio. Some of these like the Rogan Show or Call Her Daddy. They look like they're a talk show. It looks like the Colbert Show or something like that. When it's dimly lit and it's just guys in their basement, you could probably just listen to that and not have to watch it. You know what I mean?

Marcus Johnson (13:36):

Yeah. Yeah. It's been something that this podcast has been asking itself. Actually, we launched video podcasting at the start of this year and we've been trying to figure out what's going to make people watch. I think part of it is people want to watch to see the people they're listening to if they're particularly interested and have a strong connection with the host, but that's not enough. That kind of maybe gets you in the door, but then what else are they looking at? And that's why we've started throwing up charts on the screen so folks can follow along to the data as we talk about it or reference it when they want to. Video podcasts, I wonder if they'll ever be watched 100%. The question for me is how much a video podcasting will be viewed versus it's viewed when there's something to look at and then you put it back in your pocket.

Ross Benes (14:18):

Oh yeah, most of the time I'm watching a video podcast is because YouTube shows up first in Google search, of course, and I'm doing errands and there's a video there, but I'm not necessarily looking at it. I might be in the kitchen or something. Yep.

Marcus Johnson (14:38):

Well, hold on.

Ross Benes (14:38):

That happens with any show though.

Marcus Johnson (14:40):

Yeah.

Ross Benes (14:41):

Yeah. Basketball, if Brunson goes to the free throw line three times in two minutes, I'm probably not going to sit down the whole time.

Yory Wurmser (14:51):

I added a scraggly palm tree just to boost race.

Ross Benes (14:56):

It's visually compelling.

Marcus Johnson (15:00):

All right, gents, let's move on to round three. We've called that, stolen the name. The show stopping argument. Our chefs will pull out their best closing arguments as to why their trend is most likely to happen. And so Yuri, we go back to yours, new standards, unlocking agentic ad buying and selling, 30 seconds or so. Why is this more likely to happen than Ross's, than YouTube benefiting the most from video podcast surges?

Yory Wurmser (15:34):

That is a tough challenge because I think Ross is really compelling. In terms of the agenetic standards, I think they just make a ton of sense to have agents buying and selling. What they enable is real-time optimization. That's money for companies. It enables real-time optimization across the whole ecosystem. You have that in some of the walled gardens now and some open web players as well. So the incentive structure is pretty big from the buyers of ads and the sellers of ads, but you also, I think, enable new types of advertising, which that flexibility I think is going to be a really compelling argument.

Marcus Johnson (16:15):

Tell us a bit more about that. That one stood out to me, one of your predictions, standards will allow for more flexibility in ad formats. What are you envisioning here?

Yory Wurmser (16:23):

Yeah, I mean, so think a little bit in terms of how answer engines can take a qualitative question and really give you a rich answer. It's a little bit the same thing with these agentic ad buying and selling. If you've created a language that agents can understand between what a seller has to offer and what an ad buyer is looking for, you can have a much richer understanding of what they want. And you can also create more almost customer bespoke ad formats than an ad buyer would want to buy. So it gives you a much richer understanding and also a much richer ability to describe what can be done.

Marcus Johnson (17:07):

Yeah. Very nice. Ross, how about for you? YouTube benefiting the most from video podcast Edge? Your closing argument, sir.

Ross Benes (17:16):

Well, right now the economics are kind of encouraging more of video podcasts. There are several platforms that are incentivizing creators to make them. The CPMs can be higher with video, and it's also getting easier to produce and edit video due to AI and some other tools. So that's going to just increase the production. Now, as far as YouTube, it's quite simple. They are just the big universe that pull all sorts of things into their orbit. Video podcasts happen to be one of those things. So it's already a place where viewer or the listener is primed to go there for video. It's really easy to upload content there. If there's a surge of the production, I think they're going to capture a large share of the audience.

Marcus Johnson (18:05):

Very nice. And you make the point as well about how this isn't going to be necessarily a rising tide lifts all boats. It will lift some boats and some will get dragged under.

Ross Benes (18:16):

There's going to be a lot of podcasts that go back to just doing audio only, or they might do a video component, but it's not that successful and it's a tiny portion of their total listenership.

Marcus Johnson (18:30):

All right, gents. Let's move to crowning a winner. I think the winner has to be... Well, the problem is, Ross, yours is a lot more... I think the consumer facing. Consumers are going to care more about yours and Yuri, I think businesses are going to care more about yours.

Ross Benes (18:50):

True.

Marcus Johnson (18:51):

And so I think Yuri, I think I'm going to go with yours just because it's going to be so appealing to the business side of the world. And whilst the video podcast thing is particularly interesting, especially for someone like myself who works in the space, I think the new standards unlocking agentic ad buying and selling is going to be more significant if it plays out.

Yory Wurmser (19:10):

False modesty worked.

Marcus Johnson (19:12):

Congratulations. I know. Swindled. Congratulations to Yuri, today's winner of the great Behind the Numbers' Baker Takeoff. The full report has even more digital trends if you want them. ProPlus subscribers can head to yourmarketer.com and search for digital trends to watch in 2026, Five Ways AI and Video are Expanding Their Reach. The link to the report is in the show notes. That's all I've got time for for today's episode. Thank you so much to my guests. Thank you first to Ross.

Yory Wurmser (19:41):

Thanks, Marcus.

Marcus Johnson (19:42):

In a very close second. And thank you, of course, to Yuri, today's winner.

Ross Benes (19:46):

Thanks, Marcus.

Marcus Johnson (19:47):

Well played, sir. And thanks to the whole production crew, of course. Thanks to everyone for listening into Behind the Numbers video podcast. Susie will be here on Wednesday for the reimagining retail show as she goes through some of our must-watch retail trends of 2026, bake-off style again, because I made her.