The news: OpenAI revised its projected cash burn through 2029 to $115 billion—about 230% higher than earlier estimates. This alteration demonstrates how capital-intensive model training and deployment have become and how far those costs are beyond what traditional startup economics can sustain.

That figure includes more than $8 billion of spending in 2025, about $1.5 billion more than it projected earlier this year, per The Information. Still, OpenAI expects to generate $13 billion in revenues this year, around $300 million higher than expected.

Riskier dependence: The company also cut its API revenue forecast by $5 billion over the next five years and reduced projected agentic tool revenues by $26 billion.

These lowered projections could signal trouble for companies that rely on white-labeled AI—including Salesforce and Anysphere—as a path to profits. Here’s why:

• Lower revenues, less incentive to support: The reduced API and agentic tool revenue forecasts suggest those offerings aren’t meeting expectations and are leading OpenAI to deprioritize them.
• Tighter control: OpenAI could choose to integrate agents directly into ChatGPT, per The Information, rather than offer them as separate tools, reducing opportunities for partners to build on its models.
• Competitive overlap: If OpenAI builds its own end-user products, partners could find themselves competing with the platform they rely on.

The bigger picture: These financial forecasts illustrate a ballooning cash burn matched by surging investments and rising revenue expectations. However, overconfidence from investors could feed into the ongoing threat of an AI bubble.

Our take: Models are expensive to build and even more expensive to run, meaning AI firms need to have reliable ways to monetize user bases to offset computing costs and fund growth.

While ChatGPT has over half a billion users, not all are paid. Altman recently disclosed that the company is losing money on Pro subscriptions due to higher-than-expected usage. It might need to explore tactics like affiliate links or in-chat advertising for monetization and added incentives and premium features to convert free users into paying ones.