The news: A new study shows that Eli Lilly's oral weight loss drug is more effective than Novo Nordisk's oral diabetes drug.

• Lilly's pill, orfoglipron, helped patients lose 9.2% of their weight, which is significantly more than the 5.3% lost by those taking Novo Nordisk's pill.
• For context: Novo’s GLP-1 weight loss pill, currently under FDA review, is a high-dose version of the one Lilly tested against.

Why it matters: Lilly and Novo are vying to be the first to launch needle-free GLP-1 pills for weight loss.

• Novo’s semaglutide pill candidate for weight loss is a high-dose version of its currently approved oral semaglutide Rybelsus for type 2 patients. It submitted an FDA application for approval of the higher dose semaglutide in May and expects a decision in Q4.
• Lilly’s orforglipron trials are completed, but it hasn’t filed for FDA approval yet. It previously said it plans to file this year, with a launch expected next year.

Yes, and: Analysts suggest Lilly might use a new Trump administration voucher to speed up the approval process for its pill, potentially cutting the review time from 10 to 12 months down to just 1 to 2 months.

Key stat: Weight loss pills are expected to capture 25% of the anti-obesity drug market by 2030, per Goldman Sachs.

Our first take: If Lilly tries for an early voucher, it would put its weight loss pill on more competitive timing with Novo.

First-to-market is always an advantage with Rx drugs, but we think the bigger key to success is pricing. Consumers and payers are balking at current $500 to $1,000 per month injectable drug costs. With lower effectiveness rates, and cheaper upfront manufacturing, pills will likely be priced lower—but just how low will determine market success. We see a clear path for a low-price pill leading to broader uptake and sales.

This is our immediate perspective. We’re actively developing this story throughout the day with more research and data from the EMARKETER database. Our in-depth analysis will be included in our client-only Briefings. Non-clients can click here to get a demo of our full platform and coverage.

Check out other EMARKETER content related to this story:

• Eli Lilly’s obesity pill disappoints, but still holds a market advantage over rival Novo Nordisk
• Eli Lilly moves to file for approval of GLP-1 weight loss pill
• Another oral drug for weight loss delivers lower-than-expected results
• Novo Nordisk trims workforce amid effort to regain obesity drug lead