The data: Adults and teens helped propel US toy industry dollar sales up 17% YoY, the fastest H1 growth in six years, per Circana.

• Unit sales rose 12% and average selling prices climbed 4%, driven by trading cards, collectibles, licensed products, and fandom-driven play.
• Eight of the industry’s 11 supercategories posted dollar growth through June, led by explorative and other toys (up 58%) and games and puzzles (up 45%).

That growth is well ahead of our forecast, which projects a healthy 5.9% increase in toy and hobby sales for the full year.

Zooming in: The rise of “kidults” is giving the toy industry a more stable customer base. Adults tend to buy throughout the year rather than concentrating purchases around holidays, and they spend more per item on premium and collectible products. That combination of year-round demand and higher spending makes the industry less dependent on traditional child-focused gifting occasions.

• Adult-only households accounted for 55% of toy sales and grew 16% YoY through June, slightly outpacing households with children.
• Toy sales for adults 18 and older grew 25%, making them the largest contributor to industry growth.
• Consumers ages 12 to 17 were the fastest-growing recipient group, with sales increasing 33%.
• Together, teens and adults generated nearly 60% of the industry’s incremental dollar gains in the first half.

Licensing and sports properties reinforced the trend. Licensed toys grew 24% and accounted for 39% of total toy sales, up two percentage points from last year. The World Cup provided an additional boost, while MLB-, NFL-, and NBA-branded products also posted meaningful gains.

Implications for retailers and brands: The toy industry’s growth shows that even as consumers become more cautious about discretionary spending, they’re still finding room in their budgets for small indulgences.

But while kidults provide a more resilient source of demand, they aren’t immune to broader economic pressures. That helps explain why we expect toy and hobby sales growth to slow during the holiday season rather than accelerate. Toy prices rose 4.0% YoY in July, and further increases could temper spending in the second half of the year. If prices continue to outpace wage growth, even enthusiastic adult collectors may become more selective about which toys are worth the splurge.