The news: Holiday advertising is turning into a test of cost efficiency, with 38% of US marketers calling rising media costs their No. 1 stressor heading into the 2026 holiday and seasonal shopping period, per a new report from tvScientific by Pinterest.

More than three-quarters (81%) plan to run performance TV ads during the holiday and seasonal shopping period, and 71% say the budget for those advertising moments has increased—up from 57% in 2025.

That spending falls across a wide range of events. The top two seasonal moments by advertising budget are Black Friday and Cyber Monday, which will pull in 35% of budgets. This spending aligns with our forecast, as we expect the highest percentages of retail sales to happen during those two days. The rest of advertiser budgets go to:

• November and December holiday season (24%)
• Fall football season (16%)
• October’s Prime Day (12%)
• Labor Day (9%)
• News Year’s (4%)

Goalposts are also moving from exposure and awareness to demonstrable results. Nearly two-thirds (63%) of marketers say sales and revenues are the No. 1 outcome they care about for performance TV, up from the No. 4 spot in 2025 and swapping positions with reach.

The stress over higher media costs makes the 2026 holiday season more about making expensive media prove its contribution to revenues. Priorities are shifting to more tangible goals, likely because softer awareness metrics are harder to defend in budgets.

Digging in: There’s a delicate balance between spend and timing because marketers need to start holiday campaigns early to capture shoppers during their pre-event product research and purchase cycles.

Almost three-quarters (71%) of US adults plan to start buying before Black Friday, and 46% will do so before November even starts, per Attentive. However, earlier launch times means longer campaign windows that further increase spend.

Recommendations for brands: Remain present across seasonal moments but consider how to absorb the cost of a longer campaign cycle.

• Focus on tight, refined targeting to reach the consumers who are most likely to fall into brand-specific audience buckets.
• Measure both conversions and awareness to determine where dollars are producing revenues and where they’re adding to audience size.
• Start concepting holiday campaigns early in the year to avoid last-minute crunches with less-than-optimized spending.