The news: Hasbro beat analysts’ top- and bottom-line expectations in Q4, while Mattel missed on both.
Hasbro credited the outperformance to momentum in entertainment and licensing. The company recently added KPop Demon Hunters as a co-master toy licensee, opening the door to a Monopoly crossover and other interactive formats. It also secured a deal with Warner Bros. to become the primary toy licensee for the World of Harry Potter and the upcoming HBO Original “Harry Potter” series.
Hasbro is leaning aggressively into tentpole IP, with products tied to four major films: “Toy Story 5,” “Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu,” “Spider-Man: Brand New Day,” and Marvel Studios’ “Avengers: Doomsday.” Beyond film, Hasbro is partnering with HBO on a Baldur’s Gate series and will mark Transformers’ 40th anniversary with a new product line.
Mattel, by contrast, struck a more cautious tone. CEO Ynon Kreiz told Reuters that heavy promotional activity in December weighed on margins, while US segment sales grew “less than expected.” Like Hasbro, Mattel is betting on IP to drive growth, rolling out Super Mario Bros. toys aimed at toddlers and looking to upcoming films such as “Matchbox: The Movie,” alongside growth from its Mattel163 mobile gaming acquisition.
The numbers:
Hasbro’s Q4 adjusted operating profit surged 180%, while revenues rose 31%. Growth was driven by Wizards of the Coast, where revenues jumped 86% on strong demand for Magic: The Gathering. The consumer products division returned to growth, posting gains of more than 7%.
Looking ahead, Hasbro expects full-year revenue growth of 3% to 5%.
Mattel’s Q4 operating profit rose nearly 15% but was short of expectations, and revenues rose nearly 8% but missed as well. Mattel expects revenue growth of 3% to 6% and earnings to fall 7.8% to 16.3%.
Zooming out: US toy and hobby sales grew 4.6% last year, according to our forecast, which calls for sales to decelerate to 3.0% this year.
After three consecutive years of decline, the global toy industry rebounded sharply in 2025, driven by pop culture relevance, licensed products, and increased engagement from teens and adults, according to Circana. Sales rose 7% in value and 3% in units, with average selling prices up 3% across 12 major markets.
Implications: The divergent results underscore that an IP-driven strategy can work—but only with the right franchises and strong execution. Toy companies must increasingly treat IP as a cross-media ecosystem, not just a product line, to fully capture the upside of the next big hit.