The news: The US consumer credit market is splitting along a K-shaped path, per TransUnion.

• Between Q4 2022 and Q4 2025, the change in superprime population grew by 250 basis points.
• Over the same period, the subprime bucket also grew by 100 basis points.
• The prime band, meanwhile, contracted by 180 points.

Why this matters: US consumers are bifurcating into two groups as middle credit risk tiers hollow out. While some are finding pathways to better financial situations, others are becoming more vulnerable.

Non-mortgage debt-to-income (DTI) ratios reflect these trends. Superprime DTI has increased less than half of a percentage point over the past six years, while near prime and subprime DTI ratios jumped 176 and 143 basis points, respectively.

Zooming out: While the barbell-shaped US debt market provokes concern, consumers across all brackets are maintaining financial wellbeing. 

Delinquencies were down across major issuers, per most recent earnings, and Visa’s CFO Christopher Suh reaffirmed that company data did not show weakness among low-spending shoppers. 

Implications for payment providers: The superprime consumer segment is growing, making rollouts of premium products to capture their loyalty a promising strategy. Securing these consumers’ top-of-wallet position will depend on strong rewards and perks geared toward their preferences across travel, luxury, and wellness sectors. Health and wellness remains the only sector where consumers plan to spend more this year, rather than cut back, per Civic Science. 

However, abandoning subprime populations is also overlooking a key acquisition audience. Fintechs like Block are reporting bumper demand for lending products—Cash App Borrow origination volume surged up 233% YoY in Q4 2025—though risk is assessed in holistic manners with new tools.