The mobile-native generation will have a transformative impact on retail and ecommerce

Gen Z is the critical force in digital buyer growth. Nearly 90% of the 14.7 million new digital buyers in the US between 2024 and 2028 will come from Gen Z. The pace of Gen Z digital buyer growth will be fastest between 2024 and 2026, before tapering off significantly, making the near-term period a critical era for brands and retailers to capture Gen Z loyalty.

Overall digital shopper and buyer growth has stagnated. As the share of the population that browses and purchases online reaches a saturation point, there’s less room for growth from older generations. Consequently, overall digital buyer growth will remain below 2.0% each year through 2028.

Growth in spending per digital buyer will remain slower than overall ecommerce growth. The influx of younger shoppers with relatively less spending power will bring down sales-per-online-buyer growth, which will remain below the overall ecommerce growth rate.

Social is a critical channel for capturing shares of Gen Z attention and wallets. Social commerce penetration is highest among the 18-to-24-year-old cohort, per our forecast: 60.7% of the population in this group will be social buyers in 2024, and the share will rise to nearly 65% in 2027. More than half (55%) of US Gen Z consumers reported making a purchase via social media in the previous six months, per a May 2024 survey by Morning Consult for Walmart, versus 38% of overall shoppers.