Executive Summary

The coronavirus pandemic has caused retailers to retool their operational, merchandising, and marketing strategies to align with consumers’ changing shopping habits. When things return to normal, the realignment of retail will have lasting effects.

How much will US consumers spend on retail and ecommerce in 2021?

Following a dip in 2020, we forecast that total retail sales growth will begin to recover in 2021, rising 2.3% to $5.630 trillion. On the heels of outsized 32.4% growth in 2020, ecommerce sales growth will moderate to 6.1%. Brick-and-mortar retail sales will rebound from a 3.2% decline in 2020 to a 1.6% gain in 2021.

Which retailers are best positioned for 2021?

Amazon’s leadership will continue, while big-box retailers like Walmart, Target, The Home Depot, and Best Buy will extend their omnichannel momentum. Digital-first retailers like Instacart, Peloton, and Etsy will build on their pandemic-driven gains, while forward-looking brands like Nike and Lululemon will continue to successfully transition to digital and direct-to-consumer (D2C) models.

Which innovations will reshape physical retail?

Brick-and-mortar retail will incorporate digitally enabled technologies to make stores more experiential and frictionless. Click and collect, cashierless checkout, contactless payment, and digital signage will streamline in-store transactions. Increased emphasis on atmosphere and community-driven experiences will make retail more inviting.

Which advancements will influence how consumers shop online?

Social commerce will play a bigger role in brand and product discovery for discretionary goods. Growing familiarity with grocery ecommerce will push this habit forward. “Buy now, pay later” adoption will make purchases more affordable in a strained consumer economy.

WHAT’S IN THIS REPORT? This report looks at our 2021 US retail and ecommerce sales forecast, highlighting 10 key trends representing the most significant shifts in retail and consumer behavior next year.

KEY STAT: Total US retail sales are expected to grow 2.3% to $5.630 trillion in 2021.