US retail ecommerce sales will exceed $1 trillion for the first time this year as the flexibility and convenience customers found during the pandemic sticks. Spend shifting online will drive double-digit ecommerce spending growth: Average spend per digital buyer will grow at an 11.6% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) between 2022 and 2025 to reach nearly $7,000, versus a 1.9% CAGR for the number of total digital buyers.

While ecommerce volume will continue growing across channels, it will do so at uneven rates:

• Desktop and laptop retail ecommerce growth will decelerate as the segment bleeds share. Growth in this segment will lag ecommerce overall through 2025.
• Instead, customers will buy more on mobile, which will exceed 4 in 10 retail ecommerce dollars for the first time this year. Rising time spent on mobile will trickle into shopping. The biggest beneficiary will be smartphones, which will make up 85.0% of mcommerce sales this year.

To align with usage trends, checkout providers will double down on optimizing the mobile payments experience. PC-based ecommerce volume still exceeds mobile’s, so providers won’t eschew it entirely. But in 2022, they’ll focus resources on developing mobile offerings beyond one-click buy buttons. Providers will streamline checkout processes through services like mobile browser extensions that target shoppers’ preferred channels, tighter super app integrations, and new tech like shoppable video.