Key stat: Retail ecommerce sales worldwide will reach $6.419 trillion in 2025, growing 6.8% YoY—the slowest pace since 2022, per our February 2025 forecast.

Beyond the chart:

• The ecommerce growth slowdown is mostly due to weakness in China’s economy and trade-war related stress.
• Despite the slowdown, ecommerce will represent 20.5% of total global retail sales in 2025, up from 19.9% in 2024, and the market will continue to grow through the end of our forecast in 2028.
• By 2028, more than half of the worldwide population ages 14 and older will be ecommerce shoppers.

Use this chart: Retail and commerce strategists should prepare for uneven global growth, assessing regional priorities and tapping into faster-growing markets. Marketers can stress ecommerce’s growing slice of retail to reinforce investment in online channels—even when growth rates cool.

Related EMARKETER reports:

• Worldwide Retail Ecommerce Forecast 2025 (EMARKETER subscription required)
• FAQ: How the US-China Trade War Is Affecting TikTok Shop, Temu, and Shein (EMARKETER subscription required)

Methodology: Estimates are based on the analysis of data from other research firms and government agencies, historical trends, reported and estimated revenues of major online retailers, consumer online buying trends, and macro-level economic conditions.