The news: Dunkin’ and Canadian franchisor Foodtastic signed an exclusive deal to open hundreds of locations across Canada, marking Dunkin’s return nearly a decade after its 2018 exit, per Chain Store Age.

Why is this happening? The move gives Dunkin’ a significant growth opportunity in an adjacent market just as parent Inspire Brands moves toward an IPO after filing a draft S-1 with the SEC last week, per Restaurant Dive. Partnering with Foodtastic—an operator of 27 brands across more than 1,200 locations—helps mitigate execution risk by relying on a local expert.

The challenge: In pushing into Canada, Dunkin’ is directly taking on a deeply entrenched incumbent player in Tim Hortons, which has consistently outpaced the broader QSR market.

The incumbent posted 1.6% YoY comparable sales growth in Q1 2026, its 20th consecutive quarter of positive comparable sales at a time when the broader Canadian QSR market was flat.

Restaurant Brands International CEO Josh Kobza acknowledged macro softness in Canada on the earnings call, yet Tim Hortons grew through it.

Implications for US brands: Dunkin’ faces an uphill climb in a market where US brands are encountering increasing resistance.

• 71% of Canadians say they are actively reducing spending on US brands, per Morning Consult.
• Nearly two-thirds (63%) of Canadians are spending less on US goods, and 60% are buying more local products, per Bank of Canada survey data.

Breaking through those headwinds will require clear differentiation. Dunkin’ is a different brand than it was during its last run in Canada, having shifted its focus from donuts and breakfast sandwiches to beverages. But that pivot is no longer unique—Tim Hortons has also leaned heavily into beverages, with cold drink sales up 10% and espresso-based drinks and tea up 8% last quarter, and it continues to roll out new offerings like protein and zero-sugar beverages.

Softening consumer confidence adds another layer of difficulty. For Dunkin’ to succeed, it needs to localize the experience in a way that resonates with Canadian consumers, rather than simply replicating its existing playbook.