The news: Corporate credit quality is causing investor consternation even as bankers overall appear optimistic. While risks to the economy abound, very few headlines reflect it. Faint echoes of the 2023 banking crisis—in which contagion was narrowly averted and economic cataclysm prevented—do nothing to calm investors’ nerves.

More on this: Zions Bank recently wrote off $50 million related to two commercial loans, and Jeffries was exposed to the bankruptcy of an auto parts supplier. Western Alliance said in August that it’s suing one of its corporate borrowers for alleged fraud. And alongside its earnings release several days ago, JPMorgan noted that it had written off $170 million in losses from the collapse of a subprime auto lender.

According to banks’ narrative this earnings season, consumers are still spending, and their credit quality is stable. In the words of PNC CEO Bill Demchak, “the economy’s fine.” But cracks are showing: Delinquency rates on subprime auto loans are at record highs. And trade tensions, geopolitics, the fiscal deficit, and inflated asset prices all point to risks that have yet to play out.

Is the consumer alright? Consumers are increasingly pessimistic about the economy, and inflation is top of mind, according to a recent Harris Poll survey. More than three-quarters of respondents said their monthly household costs increased more than $100 in the last year, and more than half believed the economy was getting worse. The economic outlook on the ground doesn’t fit a sunny narrative.

Our take: Pockets of consumer worry haven’t metastasized, and there’s been no clear sign of a commercial credit meltdown. But bankers should follow the undercurrents in anticipation of the next crisis, even while the economy appears “fine.”

The 2023 regional banking crisis seemingly came from out of nowhere, even though the signs were there. The subsequent need for the government’s emergency actions as well as frantic mergers among regional banks show how shaky the foundation can be.

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