The trend: The Trump administration’s immigration crackdown weighed on sales in fiscal Q3 at Constellation Brands, which is the US importer of Modelo, Corona, Pacifico, and Victoria.

The details: The company said weak consumer sentiment and rising unemployment—particularly among Hispanic consumers, who make up an outsize share of its customer base—hurt demand.

• Constellation also flagged softness in what it calls “4,000-calorie jobs,” physically demanding roles such as construction that tend to support higher beer consumption. In the key market of California, construction employment declined both QoQ and YoY.
• Performance was notably weaker in ZIP codes with larger Hispanic populations. The company previously noted that immigrants were hosting fewer social gatherings and shifting purchases away from convenience stores and bodegas toward larger retail chains, in part to blend into crowds amid heightened enforcement.
• Constellation added that socioeconomic headwinds intensified during the quarter, hitting Hispanic consumers especially hard as unemployment rates rose faster than for the broader US population and economic activity slowed.

Our take: Constellation Brands is not alone in feeling the effects of the immigration crackdown.

• Ross Stores and Jack in the Box, which both over-index with Hispanic consumers, have also reported pullbacks in spending from that segment.
• Hispanic spending per household fell from 3.2% in 2024 to just 0.8% through the first half of last year, per Numerator, compared with a decline from 4.7% to 3.3% among white consumers.

The challenge is multifaceted. Hispanic consumers, on average, earn less than the national average, per the US Labor Department, and lower-income households across demographics are struggling with the cost-of-living crisis. The immigration crackdown layers on additional pressure by chilling some Hispanic consumers’ job prospects and, in turn, their willingness to spend. A survey from The Asian American Foundation shows 23% of Hispanic Americans have felt unsafe in their neighborhood in the past year.

To drive sales, companies will need to meet Hispanic consumers where they are by emphasizing value. That means leaning into sharper price points, promotions, and pack sizes.