The news: Despite lingering uncertainty from tariff wars, five of Canada’s Big Six Banks beat analyst expectations in Q3 2025, per Bloomberg. Here are the key themes:
- Loan loss provisions dropped significantly: Loan losses were lower than forecast at all six banks, signifying an improving credit environment.
- Banks’ core businesses outperformed: The big banks reported solid deposits, loan growth, wealth management, and trading revenues. The exception is National Bank, which missed analyst expectations because of a drop in trading revenue, and it’s still working through its Canadian Western Bank acquisition.
- Risks remain: Canada is facing elevated unemployment (6.9%), per Yahoo Finance. This could lead to higher loan defaults, weakening deposits, and fewer loan approvals.
Our take: Strong Q3 results provide a critical opportunity for Canadian banks to proactively fortify their balance sheets against known future risks. While lower loan loss provisions signal a better credit environment, the lingering threat of rising unemployment means this may not last. Banks should use this period of outperformance to conservatively build reserves, tighten lending standards for higher-risk clients, and prioritize stability and risk management over short-term loan growth.
Marketing take: Marketing campaigns should highlight a bank's strong financial health to reassure customers that their deposits and financial futures are secure. Focus on long-term relationship building by promoting products and services that emphasize stability—like savings and wealth management—over riskier ventures.