The trend: Beauty sales are off to a slow start in 2026, according to two new forecasts.

• Beauty industry growth will be flat in Q1, according to Daash Intelligence data shared with Beauty Independent.
• Prosper Insights & Analytics expects spending to increase between 2% and 2.5% YoY in Q1.

Zoom out: Beauty spending, while not entirely unaffected by uncertainty, is proving to be more resilient than other discretionary categories. That’s due to a confluence of factors, including the growing association of beauty and skincare with wellness practices, the “lipstick effect,” and the fact that many consumers—especially Gen Zers and millennials—consider beauty products and services to be essential. The K-shaped economy is also a significant tailwind: Households with incomes over $100,000 account for nearly 50% of beauty sales, and are increasing their spending by 18% to 20% YoY, according to Anna Mayo, a beauty industry analyst at NielsenIQ.

However, the rising tide is not lifting all boats. Coty blamed its weak holiday quarter on underperformance in the US, while Estée Lauder expects Americas sales to be flat this fiscal year. Both companies have struggled to deliver products and messaging that resonate with shoppers, creating room for rivals to take share—or, in Coty’s case, steal away some of its most lucrative licenses.

Implications for beauty retailers: Despite the tepid start, the beauty industry is set for another year of solid growth. Our forecast expects US cosmetics and beauty sales to rise 4% this year, largely driven by ecommerce strength, as consumers stick to their beauty routines in spite of uncertainty.