The news: Back-to-school data shows that while consumers haven’t abandoned spending, they have changed the conditions under which they spend.
Consumers are delaying purchases and comparison-shopping more aggressively. Shoppers in early August had only completed an average of 44% of their shopping list as they patiently waited for deals, per NRF’s latest back-to-school consumer survey. They’re also turning to technology for help, with 61% of back-to-school shoppers saying they used generative AI and other AI-powered shopping tools to find the best prices and discounts.
Value and price are top of mind. Roughly three quarters (74%) of back-to-school shoppers cited price as a top factor driving their purchase decisions, while 64% cited sales or discounts, per a YouGov consumer survey. That aligns with NRF’s data that found 48% of purchases during the season have been driven by coupons, sales, or promotions.
Why it matters: The consumer isn’t pulling back from retail, but they are eager to avoid paying full price. That dynamic favors large retailers that can use sharp pricing on key items to capture more of their back-to-school baskets.
Walmart saw increases in back-to-school traffic, ticket, and unit volume, helped in part by rollback pricing on 14 key items to levels not seen since 2019. The retailer is also looking to capture more food sales with a protein-heavy, $2 lunch basket.
Target is taking a slightly different approach, pairing value with tools designed to make back-to-school shopping easier. The retailer held prices on 95% of its school supplies while adding AI-powered teacher and college wish lists and more personalized content to its app. Shoppers responded, with total wish list creation up more than 50% YoY, items added to those lists more than doubling, and conversion across key back-to-school pages rising nearly 20%.
Shoppers’ focus on value doesn’t mean they aren’t willing to splurge. Both retailers also found success giving consumers affordable indulgences to add to their baskets. Walmart’s back-to-college decor posted double- and triple-digit comps. Meanwhile, Target’s LoveShackFancy x Target collection, which featured more than 200 items across apparel, accessories, beauty, school supplies, and other categories, became the largest limited-time collaboration in its history.
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