The trend: Google’s share of search ad revenues will dwindle to a hair over 50% this year, down from about 55% two years earlier. Retail media search will capture the majority of new search ad dollars over the next few years.

As the channel gains momentum, generative AI (genAI) and measurement are two areas to watch. So, which retailers are capturing retail media search ad budgets, and what’s next in retail media search?

Walmart leads the pack: Walmart’s (a distant) second to Amazon. It will account for nearly 4 in 10 non-Amazon retail media search ad dollars this year—more than any other single competitor. That translates to $2.42 billion in search ad revenues.

• Walmart’s search business is growing faster than any other platform we track. Its search ad revenues will increase 30.4% this year—almost twice as fast as Target’s and Amazon’s.
• Walmart’s search ads match Amazon’s in breadth and consistency. Like Amazon, Walmart serves ads against the vast majority of search queries—99%, according to H1 2024 research from Crealytics. Crealytics also found that both Walmart and Amazon maintained better ad coverage for complicated, wordy searches compared with other retailers.
• And Walmart has the in-store advantage. It’s working to develop better omnichannel measurement solutions to connect online search ads to purchases made in its thousands of US stores.

On the horizon: What does this mean for retail media search advertisers?

• Walmart has entered a new era. It’s widening its lead over Target with capabilities that rival Amazon’s. It may never reach Amazon’s size, but as the king of omnichannel commerce, Walmart is well-positioned to capture more retail media search budgets.
• Changes are afoot as genAI permeates retail media. Retailers are reimagining shopper journeys with AI-assisted search. As platforms refine their new tools and features, consumer behavior and retail search ad formats will evolve.
• Obstacles to measuring incrementality remain. While the industry chips away at systemic challenges like standardization, individual marketers can evaluate specialized third-party measurement vendors and consider pausing their retail media search efforts to observe the impact.

Go deeper: For more about the retailers capturing retail media search ad budgets and what’s next for retail media search, see our report “Retail Media Search Forecast and Trends 2024.”