Among the major AI trends expected to shape the industry in 2026, experts believe that Google's growing dominance will overshadow all others.
"My take is that by the end of 2026, Google will have overtaken OpenAI as the leading source of consumer AI engagement," said our analyst Nate Elliott on a recent episode of "Behind the Numbers." "I think that even though OpenAI and ChatGPT have been the undisputed leaders in consumer AI for three years now, since ChatGPT first launched, that they will stumble in 2026 and that Google is already a lot closer to ChatGPT than most people think."
In the episode, analysts discuss this and other AI predictions that could change how marketers approach their campaigns this year.
Google's path to AI dominance
Google is leveraging its massive ecosystem to rapidly close the gap with OpenAI's ChatGPT. Despite being late to the generative AI market, analysts say Google's AI tools are gaining significant traction through integration with its widely-used products.
"Google offers the world's number one mobile operating system, the world's number one web browser, the world's number one search engine, the world's number one web mail platform," said Elliott. "No one has the same ability to reach an enormous audience and convince them to use a new offering."
This distribution advantage is already showing results. According to Elliott, more people have downloaded the Gemini app than the ChatGPT app for at least the past six months. Additionally, he said blind taste tests show users often prefer Google's AI tools over OpenAI's for most consumer applications.
Google's strategy of gradually integrating AI into search could be particularly powerful.
"I think by the end of 2026, maybe as many as 10 or even 15% of regular Google searches, the longer ones, the more complex ones are going to get defaulted into AI mode," said Elliott.
AI reality check
While Google may gain market share, the entire AI industry faces significant headwinds that could slow its breakneck growth in 2026.
"The AI boom that we've seen over the past three years is headed for a bit of a reality check in 2026," said EMARKETER analyst Jacob Bourne. "The supply chain can't quite keep up with AI companies' needs."
He said these constraints include energy limitations due to the escalation of data center usage, infrastructure delays from labor and material shortages, and component scarcity.
Bourne said the financial picture for AI companies is equally concerning.
"AI models, the frontier models, are just very expensive to build and deploy commercially to the point that they're not profitable yet," Bourne explained.
What it means for the AI landscape
The combination of these trends suggests a significant reshaping of the AI industry by the end of 2026.
"We don't need 12 to 15 consumer-facing AI tools, and yet here we are," said Elliott. "I think by the end of 2026, we're going to see several of them, including some that we think of as bigger names, but that still only have 1% or 2% of global AI usage share... have to find some M&A options."
Experts say this is a necessary correction that could ultimately lead to more sustainable growth.
"I don't think we're headed towards another AI winter like we saw in past decades," said Bourne. "But I think what's happening now is that there are real reality checks taking place on these kind of overheated investments."
Listen to the full episode.