Consumers are approaching holiday shopping with a sharper focus on value, taking more time to compare options and make deliberate choices, often with the help of AI tools. For brands, this shift changes what will drive results at the tail end of the year.

Success will depend less on big promotional moments and more on showing up consistently, offering clear value, and making it easy for shoppers to move from consideration to purchase at their own pace.

Financial confidence is improving, but spending remains value-driven

More than half of US consumers (53%) said they felt financially comfortable during the 2025 holiday season, and nearly as many (47%) expect their financial comfort to improve in 2026, according to Similarweb’s 2026 Holiday Planning report.

But confidence doesn’t necessarily translate into higher spending.

• Among consumers who said they were better off in 2025 than in 2024, over a third (35%) spent less during the 2025 holiday season.
• In total, 42% of consumers bought fewer items, while 21% traded down to more affordable options last year.

Even if financial sentiment improves, holiday shopping behavior will remain firmly value-driven. Brands should plan for sustained, season-long promotions, not just peak moments, especially as more than half of consumers (50.7%) say they will start planning their gifting earlier this year.

Browsing and buying happen at different points

In higher-ticket categories like consumer electronics, purchases tend to happen around Black Friday, underscoring a heavier reliance on promotions at higher price points, per Similarweb. In contrast, categories like home and kitchen and toys and games see demand spread more evenly across the season, with less dependence on a single discount moment.

Across categories, browsing activity tends to peak several days before purchases, as shoppers take time to compare options and assess value. Conversion rates, however, differ meaningfully by category.

• While views were up for home and kitchen (1.0%) and toys and games (1.9%) last year, purchases declined by 5.5% and 7.4%, respectively, according to Similarweb.
• Electronics saw declines in both views (3.6%) and purchases (6.9%).
• Beauty stood out as the exception, with views up 4.7% and purchases up 6.4%, signaling stronger conversion and more decisive demand.

Because there is often a delay between initial product engagement and purchase, brands should plan for that window with tactics like retargeting and cart reminders. At the same time, conversion patterns vary by category, making it critical to tailor promotional strategies and discounting accordingly.

AI is playing a growing role in shopping and conversion

AI will play a larger role this season, with 37.1% of consumers planning to use it more for holiday shopping, found Similarweb.

Currently, shoppers primarily rely on AI tools to support early-stage decisions, with top use cases including comparing products (59.5%), finding the best price (57.9%), and generating gift ideas (49.2%).

AI is already beginning to function as a meaningful conversion driver.

• ChatGPT, for example, has a conversion rate of 7.1%, second only to paid search at 7.8%.
• Of the 2.7 billion ChatGPT visits that took place between July and August 2025, 10.8 million show transactional intent, and 19 million result in referrals to ecommerce sites.

But as more AI platforms enable checkout within their interfaces, the path to purchase could take place entirely outside of traditional retail channels. Brands should understand how they appear in AI-driven experiences and ensure they can convert demand wherever it emerges.

More selective shoppers are raising expectations for value and information

Consumers are becoming more discerning about both the gifts they buy and where they buy them.

Nearly a third (30.2%) say they compare more retailers than they did two to three years ago, 29.9% are more likely to wait for key sales events, and 27.0% report taking more time to research products before making a purchase, according to Similarweb data.

Some of this behavior is rooted in cost-consciousness.

• More than a third of consumers (35%) said they prioritized practical or useful gifts last year due to cost-of-living concerns.
• That mindset is expected to continue, with 28.1% planning to focus on fewer, better-chosen gifts this holiday season.

As holiday shoppers become more deliberate, their expectations for clarity and value are rising. Brands need to meet that bar with decision-ready information, from detailed product pages to transparent specifications and clear, question-driven content. This is critical for driving conversion and improving visibility, especially in AI-driven shopping experiences.