Our first-ever worldwide forecast for retail media ad spending shows enduring momentum and lots of good news for Amazon and other ecommerce platforms around the world.

The ad spending winter of 2022 and early 2023 was mild and short-lived, as we predicted. And after a solid H2 2023, things are looking up across the board for 2024.

No other market in the world comes close to China when it comes to ecommerce. Its highly competitive digital market has spurred retail innovations that are making their way around the world.

Douyin, TikTok's Chinese sibling, is about to become China’s largest social platform. It's also crashing the country’s ecommerce party. Already the fourth largest online shopping platform by sales, its market share is rapidly approaching JD.com's.

After the self-inflicted stagnation of 2022, China’s retail and ecommerce sales growth is somewhat back on track. At the company level, Douyin has burst onto the scene as a major retailer, and Pinduoduo’s ascent continues.

In China, ecommerce channel ad spending represents over 38% of total digital ad spending, and ecommerce search spending accounts for 64.0% of total search. Could the US figures reach similar heights?

Alibaba and JD.com, China’s other ecommerce giants, never gained substantial traction in the US, partly due to their lack of spending to acquire customers. US-based Wish spent heavily on digital ads and rode the pandemic-driven ecommerce boom to an IPO—but has since lost its way.

Retailers start to test the waters of generative AI: While companies like Carrefour and Fanatics are using it to improve engagement, Amazon has concerns over data privacy.

The Chinese economy shows signs of life: While that’s good news for retailers after flat growth last year, many are adopting conservative strategies to protect their bottom lines.

Alibaba, Amazon, and Mercado Libre dominate retail ecommerce in different parts of the world. Here’s a look at how these marketplaces stack up, in seven charts and graphics.

Pinduoduo grew faster than JD.com, Alibaba in Q3: But with lockdowns and protests stymieing domestic spending, the discount retailer is looking for growth opportunities in the US.

Pinduoduo, ByteDance pose threat to Amazon: China-based companies are getting into international ecommerce for an expanded customer base. If the prices are right, they could give Amazon more Q4 worries.

Shoppers in India spent enthusiastically ahead of Diwali celebrations: But the outlook for China’s biggest shopping event is much less rosy as Chinese consumers grapple with economic uncertainty.

The personal luxury goods sector is riding a wave of high demand in the US and China, buoyed by wealthier consumers who are relatively immune to the impact of price increases. But brands will need to appeal to the rising Gen Z consumer, as well as strengthen loyalty among their most important customers.

Challenging macroeconomic conditions have ushered in an era of more modest spending growth in China. But the outlook remains positive in spaces that are capturing consumer interest and demand—like live commerce and digital groceries.

Retailers look to promotional shopping events like Prime Day to juice sales: Amazon, Alibaba, Walmart, and others hope the prospect of a good deal will lure customers in.

Amazon and others are rapidly rolling out contactless checkout: While the pandemic sparked interest in contactless technology, the tight labor market could lead more retailers to adopt the tools.

Retailers take last-mile fulfillment into their own hands: Companies like Costco and Amazon are building their own logistics networks, to the detriment of FedEx and UPS.

Alibaba’s stranglehold on ecommerce in China is loosening: The company’s earnings disappointed amid weakening consumer demand, robust performances from rivals, and more scrutiny from Beijing.